Bitcoin has moved within 10 percent of its realised price, which is cited as a key on-chain support level. The market is watching whether this signals a bear-market bottom.

Cointelegraph reported on June 30 that Bitcoin's realised price is about $53,300. After a recent decline, BTC/USD has quickly narrowed the gap with that level.

The realised price refers to the average price when currently circulating bitcoins last moved on-chain. The market sees it as an indicator close to the average purchase price of all holders. On TradingView, BTC/USD has not fallen below this line since the end of the 2022 bear market.

CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Sunmoon said that in every past recurring bear market there was a period when Bitcoin was pushed below the realised price, and that zone was the best opportunity for Bitcoin investment. He added, "If the moment comes when the Bitcoin price falls below the realised price again, then it can be seen as an investment zone for a new cycle."

Market participants focus on this indicator because the realised price has acted like a benchmark for past bear-market bottoms. There are various modified indicators within the realised price that reflect costs for investor groups such as long-term and short-term holders, but the market is more sensitive to whether the broader realised price representing the overall average cost is retested.

Debate is also continuing over the possibility of further declines. Price model developer PlanB presented a break below the realised price as one of two key conditions needed for a trend reversal in recent months. The other is a weekly close below the 200-week moving average, which he viewed as having already started several weeks ago.

In a post on X earlier this month, PlanB said opinion was split 50-50 on whether $60,000 around February was the bottom or the bear market would continue. He later added that it was highly likely Bitcoin would form a bottom below the realised price.

Another factor cited is that institutional inflows are a different variable from past bear markets. Still, market analyst Aaron Bennett said the possibility of a test of the realised price remains even with such changes. He told his followers on X last week that he would rather be surprised if the price did not touch this level or did not fall below it for a few weeks.

Against this backdrop, the market is watching whether Bitcoin actually falls below the realised price and whether it would be only a short-term break. As a level that has not been broken even once since 2022, moves near $53,300 are emerging as a key yardstick for judging how far the current decline will extend.