Bitcoin is continuing to trade in a range near $64,000. Fears over a sharp rise in oil prices have largely subsided, but an assessment says it will be difficult to see a clear direction before the end of the third quarter.

On June 23 (local time), blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that bitcoin has been unable to break out of the $57,000 to $77,000 range formed after the Strait of Hormuz shock.

Kaanluca Koymen (칸루카 쾨이멘), an investment strategist at Sygnum, described the current phase as a period lacking a clear catalyst. He said that in the absence of decisive drivers, positioning and fund flows are likely to dictate range-bound moves more than new spot demand. Angie Maltese (앤지 말테지), chief operating officer at Altius, also pointed out that markets often move sideways for long periods while waiting for a new trigger.

The key backdrop is the lag in inflation indicators. The May consumer price index rose 0.5 percent from the previous month and 4.2 percent from a year earlier, while gasoline prices climbed 7.0 percent in a month and 40.5 percent from a year earlier.

The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its June target range for the benchmark interest rate at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent and said inflation remains above its 2 percent goal. It raised its 2026 personal consumption expenditures inflation forecast to 3.6 percent in June from 2.7 percent in March, and lifted its core PCE inflation forecast to 3.3 percent from 2.7 percent.

Koymen said a single sign of easing does not settle the situation because energy shocks feed into inflation with a delay. "Numbers that properly reflect the post-normalisation trend can realistically only be confirmed in August, and the Federal Open Market Committee will reflect that in September," he said. "A meaningful turning point would be no earlier than the late third quarter."

That timeline also aligns with the Fed's recent stance. Koymen said the Fed has entered a phase of judging each data point and that, beyond CPI, the Fed's preferred core PCE inflation measure is important. He said markets could react more sensitively to upcoming inflation data because the new chair, Kevin Warsh (케빈 워시), signalled at his first meeting that he would reduce additional forward guidance.

Around September, a bottleneck is forming as key data and policy decisions cluster. The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control issued General License X on June 22, allowing transactions in Iranian crude oil and petroleum until Aug. 21. June CPI is released on July 14, and it could partly reflect the fallout from the energy price shock. July CPI is announced on Aug. 12 and could show more clearly for the first time whether energy prices are easing. At the FOMC meeting on Sept. 15 to 16, August CPI will be known but August PCE inflation will not yet be out, which could constrain the Fed's judgment.

Oil futures markets are already placing more weight on easing supply concerns. Koymen said most West Texas Intermediate contracts across maturities have fallen below $75 a barrel, and some 2027 contracts are trading below $70, adding that the supply premium is coming out across the curve.

Structural factors that prevent bitcoin from breaking higher also remain. Koymen cited BlackRock's recently launched covered-call exchange-traded fund, BITA, saying such products sell call options backed by their holdings and can repeatedly generate profit-taking supply during upward moves.

Spot ETF flows were also cited as a key variable. Recent ETF outflows were assessed as driven more by profit-taking and reduced risk amid the macro environment than by a structural exit, and the outflow momentum has weakened at current price levels. Still, bitcoin would need a recovery in institutional accumulation through ETFs to break out of its range on its own.

There are two scenarios ahead. The optimistic view is that normalisation in the oil curve continues and the energy shock is reflected only in a limited way in July CPI and PCE inflation, boosting expectations for a September rate cut. Conversely, if gasoline and goods prices spread into core inflation for longer, the Fed could keep rates higher for longer and bitcoin could test the lower end of its range again.

Policy variables also remain. The Clarity bill, which addresses crypto market structure, depends on the congressional schedule and bipartisan support regardless of geopolitical factors. Maltese said that if an unexpected passage of the bill becomes reality, it could lift bitcoin's trading range faster than oil prices and inflation data.

For now, market attention is expected to focus on August inflation data, the Fed meeting in September and changes in ETF flows. Bitcoin has entered a phase in which macro variables and product structure together are creating a range-bound market.