Bitcoin futures market funding rates climbed to the highest level in about 2 weeks, improving short-term investor sentiment. But outflows from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have continued for a sixth week, keeping expectations for a break above $70,000 limited, analysts say.

On June 22 (local time), blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that bitcoin rose at one point to around $65,500.

The move reflected expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East. U.S. Vice President JD Vance said there had been encouraging progress in talks with an Iranian delegation in Switzerland and that the Strait of Hormuz remained open.

Bullish bets also increased in the derivatives market. The annualised funding rate for bitcoin perpetual futures rose to 7% on the day, the highest in nearly 3 weeks. While the level remains within the neutral range of 6 to 12%, it is read as a sign that bullish investors have grown more confident as demand for leveraged long positions increased.

Oil prices also affected sentiment. Brent crude fell to $77.50 a barrel, the lowest level since March. With geopolitical uncertainty easing somewhat, pressure across risk assets has lessened.

Still, the broader market did not fully shift into risk-on mode. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1% amid weakness in artificial intelligence-related stocks. SpaceX shares also slid 13% after it laid out a plan to raise debt despite holding more than $100 billion in cash. The market sees the sector as potentially needing larger investment over a longer period before it becomes profitable.

In the options market, demand for downside protection was strong. On June 22, put option demand was more than double that of call options. The indicator began tilting toward bearish strategies from June 20 and moved opposite to the previous week’s trend. That suggests investors are bracing for downside risks even as bitcoin prices rebound.

Some concerns also remained over corporate bitcoin holdings. Strategy shares traded 13% below the $64.1 billion cost basis of its 847,363 bitcoin purchases. Its $6.75 billion debt load is at a manageable level, but some in the market raised concerns about a possible sale of its holdings. Strategy later announced an additional cash position worth $300 billion, easing some of those worries.

Order-book flows in the spot market differed from the weekend. On major exchanges’ bitcoin order books, buy orders exceeded sell orders by $12 million. That has led to the view that bitcoin’s failure to hold $65,000 alone is not enough to call a shift to a bearish trend. Gold fell 0.9% on the day, and U.S. Treasuries also faced selling pressure.

The moves show investors prefer cash over stocks, bonds and gold. Rising U.S. Treasury yields may reflect inflation concerns or potential dilution stemming from an increase in U.S. government debt. Bitcoin is also unlikely to build short-term upward momentum easily in such a macro environment.

The biggest burden is spot ETF flows. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs have seen outflows for six straight weeks. Net outflows in the previous week totalled $228 million. While futures funding rates and order-book indicators point to optimism, the lack of spot inflows remains a key variable, and the market sees limited chances of a quick jump to $70,000 in the near term.