Bitcoin is holding the $64,000 level even after the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) reaffirmed its hawkish stance, but the market is still stuck in a range without clear buying.

On June 22 (local time), blockchain outlet Decrypt reported that Bitcoin is down about 13 percent over the past month and is currently trading sideways at $64,000. That is about 50 percent below $126,080 recorded in October last year.

Market participants see the current moves as a period lacking direction rather than a trending market. HashKey chief researcher Tim Sun said the muted price reaction reflects that selling pressure has largely been exhausted, not that demand has returned.

He said a sustained rebound in Bitcoin would require both a recovery in risk appetite and supportive long-term interest rates. As a result, ETF flows, oil prices and U.S. long-term Treasury yields are cited as key variables.

The Fed remains a burden. James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said the crypto market was more subdued than expected even after the first hawkish move by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. He added that expectations of high real interest rates remain a headwind for liquidity-sensitive assets. He also said the macro environment is restrictive in the short term, but Bitcoin’s structural case as an alternative currency asset has not disappeared.

Spot ETF flows are still read as a bearish signal. Dean Chen, an analyst at Bitunix, said about $90.7 million left spot ETF products on June 18 alone, and cumulative outflows over the past month total about $4 billion. He added that the pace of weekly outflows has recently slowed to the hundreds of millions of dollars. Chen said Bitcoin is not plunging and is moving within a range as deleveraging proceeds in derivatives markets, and that stabilising forces are absorbing volatility.

The liquidation distribution is also tilted more to the downside. Chen said about $1.3 billion in long liquidations are clustered around $61,900, while about $870 million in short liquidations are concentrated around $64,800. Even so, he said prices have not been pushed into the lower liquidation zone and described the market as a 'range-bound redistribution phase.'

Some focus more on medium-term factors than the short term. Steven Bundtke, head of strategy and revenue at Algoz Technologies, warned that a vote on the U.S. Clarity bill is scheduled for July 4, and if it fails, discussion of a market structure bill could be pushed to the fourth quarter. He also said it would take two to three months after the effects of an Iran ceasefire are reflected before U.S. inflation can slow. "This period could be a bottom, but it could stay on that bottom for a while," he said.

Annual fund flows also show the market’s temperature. Bundtke calculated that net ETF inflows, which topped $20 billion in 2025, have flipped to net outflows of $3.2 billion in 2026. Over the same period, Bitcoin fell about 26 percent from the start of the year, and a basket of major tokens dropped nearly 50 percent.

Whale activity is sending other signals. On Chainflip, Bitcoin recorded the highest inflows over the past 90 days at $239 million, and holders tended to secure liquidity through loans rather than selling. Peter Smedas, Chainflip’s head of marketing, said, "Investors want liquidity backed by Bitcoin rather than selling Bitcoin and exiting."

The closest catalyst is the expiry of $10.9 billion of Bitcoin options scheduled for June 27. Observers say a large expiry event could increase short-term volatility in a market that has failed to find direction. Prediction market Myriad is pricing a 70 percent chance that Bitcoin will fall to $55,000, up 5 percentage points from the previous week.

This phase is seen as placing more weight on changes in market structure than sharp price swings. ETF outflows, derivatives deleveraging and a preference for collateral-backed loans have appeared at the same time, showing the Bitcoin market searching for direction between exhausted selling and a lack of demand.

A hawkish Fed hold, less forward guidance, and still no clear risk-on catalyst. Yet @Bitcoin absorbed the reset better than anticipated, while digital asset ETP outflows across all issuers slowed to US$149M. Restrictive backdrop. No capitulation signal. More in @jbutterfill’s… pic.twitter.com/KMKUVnxEFk