[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Bitcoin is struggling to find direction near $64,000. A stronger U.S. dollar and upcoming inflation data have emerged as key market variables this week.

Cointelegraph reported on Sunday that the U.S. dollar index (DXY) moved back above 100 and rose to its highest level since May 2025. That has weighed on risk assets broadly, including cryptocurrencies.

The U.S. dollar index measures the dollar’s value against the currencies of major U.S. trading partners. It typically tends to move in the opposite direction to the crypto market, meaning persistent dollar strength could limit bitcoin’s room to rise further. Trader Dan Crypto Trades noted that the index broke above 100 and is being supported by the daily 200-day simple moving average and exponential moving average. Benjamin Cowen said a strong-dollar scenario could continue into the second half of 2026.

Macro indicators are also a headwind. This week brings releases of the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve closely watches, the revised first-quarter gross domestic product reading and initial jobless claims. The May PCE price index in particular is cited as a key gauge that could again shake interest-rate expectations. If inflation pressures prove stronger than expected, expectations for Fed rate cuts would weaken further and the market could continue to price in the possibility of rate hikes within the year. The CME Group FedWatch tool put the probability of a rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting at the end of July at about 36 percent.

A sharp drop in oil prices after a peace agreement between the United States and Iran is being cited as a partial buffer for bitcoin. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell to $73 a barrel, the lowest since early March. Recently, risk assets have risen as oil prices fell, and bitcoin has climbed into the mid-$60,000 range in that environment.

Looking only at near-term price action, hopes for a rebound in July remain. Trader Rekt Capital said, citing historical correlations between June and July, that "if June closes bearish, July could see a relief rally." But the bearish market could extend for several more months in the longer term, he added, saying that "compared with previous bear markets, there is still room for further downside."

On-chain indicators have also raised the prospect that $60,000 could hold. Glassnode said in a recent analysis that bitcoin and gold rose together and that accumulation flows are supporting $60,000 as a local bottom. Glassnode said supply absorption in the bottom zone was somewhat gradual and that the $60,000 level could be defended by multiple investor groups.

Selling pressure from short-term holders remains a burden. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed to short-term holders, defined as those holding for six months or less, as the group shaken most in the latest pullback. Inflows to Binance from short-term holders in June exceeded 80,000 bitcoin over seven days, amounting to about $5 billion in selling pressure.

Still, large investors are showing relatively calm moves at current price levels. Analyst CryptoJeno said the profitability gap between long-term whales and short-term whales points to a sideways phase rather than capitulation.

Ultimately, the bitcoin market this week is likely to seek a balance among a strong dollar, inflation indicators, oil price stability and selling pressure from short-term holders. Whether $60,000 holds and whether a seasonal July rebound actually appears are expected to shape the near-term direction.

#BTC History suggests that whatever June does, July will do the opposite Therefore if June is red, July will likely be green So if June ends the month like this, it will confirm a loss of the 50-Month EMA as support And so July will likely relief rally to turn the EMA into… pic.twitter.com/cc9tSxan8T