Michael Novogratz (마이클 노보그라츠), CEO of Galaxy Digital, pointed to U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts as a key variable for a bitcoin rebound.

Cryptopolitan, a blockchain media outlet, reported on June 20 that Novogratz said on a recent podcast that bitcoin’s latest weakness may not last. He said market sentiment could change if U.S. monetary policy shifts to an easing stance.

Novogratz said bitcoin has been weighed down in recent months by weak price action, low retail investor interest and a spread of pessimism. He has repeatedly stressed that “bitcoin needs an easing phase.” He said the Fed’s current tightening stance is constraining market liquidity, preventing bitcoin from breaking above key psychological price levels.

Worries are also growing within the market about slowing bitcoin momentum. Anthony Scaramucci (앤서니 스카라무치) said on the same podcast that the market’s driving force has weakened, citing a decline in bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI). Participants also cited Google search volumes falling over recent years and overall market interest dropping to an all-time low.

Concentrated bitcoin holdings were also cited as a burden. Scaramucci said 79 percent of circulating bitcoin is held by long-term owners that have not moved it. The market is split on whether that is a bottom signal or a sign bitcoin is heading toward becoming a dead asset.

Novogratz drew a line at the view that bitcoin has become a dead asset. He said bitcoin’s long-term outlook should be assessed at least through next year, specifically around March 2027. He said it is too early to conclude an asset’s long-term viability based only on short-term indicators.

He said the recent bearishness reflects market expectations that U.S. interest rates will stay high for a prolonged period. He said a shift to a new Fed chair was expected to bring a stronger policy stance, which has weighed on both bitcoin and gold prices.

He said the situation could change if the U.S. economy weakens and the Fed ultimately turns to rate cuts. He said lower rates could reduce borrowing costs and increase liquidity in financial markets, reviving demand for risk assets. He also said many investors are not fully factoring in the possibility of future rate cuts.

He also acknowledged poor current market conditions. Novogratz said there is no energy in the bitcoin market now and no new buyers. He said limited inflows of new money are preventing an uptrend from continuing.

Pressure around bitcoin-focused investment strategies was also discussed. Novogratz said there are concerns about the bitcoin-buying approach of Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, and about a funding model based on debt and capital-raising programs. He said it shows market participants remain sensitive to the funding structure even if bullish sentiment on bitcoin holds.

Even so, Novogratz said the bitcoin narrative is not over. He said the market should focus more on the possibility of a shift in Fed policy than on cooled investor sentiment in the coming months. If economic conditions worsen and rate cuts return to the policy agenda, bitcoin’s investment appeal, which has weakened in recent months, could come back into focus.

He said the bitcoin market will likely need patience for the time being. He suggested it would be better to reassess bitcoin’s outlook around March 2027 rather than cling to short-term weakness. He said analysis suggests whether bitcoin rebounds depends less on the price itself than on when liquidity and the rate environment change.

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