Bitcoin tried to recover the $64,000 level, but the market remains on guard over the durability of this rebound.

Cointelegraph reported on June 21 that bitcoin rose as high as $64,522 before retreating and turning down 0.5 percent on an intraday basis.

Bitcoin held on to most of its gains even as geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran resurfaced. Market uncertainty has increased after Tehran again closed the Strait of Hormuz oil shipping route and doubts were raised about the durability of the previous ceasefire agreement. Risks weighed more broadly on risk assets after Israel's air strikes on Lebanon, Iran's warning in response and hardline remarks by U.S. President Donald Trump, but bitcoin tried again to re-enter the $64,000 range.

Traders did not view the rise only optimistically. Lennart Snyder (레나르트 스나이더) wrote on X, formerly Twitter, that bitcoin's climb amid rising geopolitical tensions was "very suspicious". He still left open the possibility that the current rebound could extend to $66,000 and said this week could be an "interesting week".

There was also a warning that a short-term peak could come sooner than expected. Trader Killa (트레이더 킬라) said Monday trading had not recently been favorable for bitcoin and pointed out that the weekly high could be formed early. That was also why crypto traders took a cautious stance for several hours before U.S. futures markets opened.

A gap also emerged between spot and derivatives markets. Exitpump (엑시트펌프), which analyzed order books, said the latest price rise was being driven by derivatives rather than spot buying. "Even though bitcoin's price is rising slowly, Binance spot keeps selling into the rally," he said. "It is generally a perpetual futures-led rise."

That assessment also aligns with Binance spot selling pressure that continued through the week. The market has previously seen speculation that aggressive selling originating from Binance has constrained attempts to rise. That means upside could be limited if spot supply and demand do not follow even if prices rebound.

That narrows this week's key points for bitcoin into two tracks. One is whether it can settle at the $64,000 level even as geopolitical variables expand. The other is whether the current rebound marks a trend reversal accompanied by actual spot demand, or whether it will remain a short-term bounce pushed up by derivatives markets. The market is keeping open the possibility of $66,000, while watching whether Monday volatility and Binance selling pressure continue.

$BTC is pumping with rising geopolitical tensions, very suspicious. Might squeeze some shorts in the 65K-66K area first, could give some nice trade opportunities. 68K remains a liquidity cluster that’s untapped, keeping that in mind as a short POI too. I faded the long on…