If a macro shock hits that sends U.S. stocks plunging more than 50 percent, bitcoin could fall below $24,000 in 2026, a forecast said.

Cointelegraph reported on June 21 that technical analyst Jesse Olson (제시 올슨) expects bitcoin could be pushed down to $23,980.

Olson pointed to a long-term support line on a two-week chart based on his own indicator, Market Sniper Pro VWAP. The line is a volume-weighted average price set with a reference point at the 2022 bear-market low, and was presented as a gauge of bitcoin's long-term support range. Olson presented $23,980 as the base scenario during a severe macro selloff phase.

The premise for the forecast is a shock to the stock market. Bitcoin has a strong risk-asset character, the explanation said, meaning investors may cut their crypto exposure first when market stress rises.

Warnings of a possible equity-market correction also continued. GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham called the current artificial intelligence market boom a "major speculative bubble", and Michael Burry compared the recent rally to the final stage of the dot-com frenzy. Economist Gary Shilling also warned a U.S. recession is unavoidable by year-end and expected stocks could fall 20 to 30 percent.

Internal market indicators are also tilting to the downside. The Coinbase Premium Index tracks the bitcoin price gap between Coinbase and Binance. A positive reading means U.S. institutional demand is relatively strong, while a negative reading is read as a sign that professional investor buying is weak or selling on Coinbase is stronger. For bitcoin, the index has stayed mostly in negative territory in 2026, meaning institutional buying has not yet come in with conviction.

Flows for spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds show a similar pattern. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $4.68 billion since May, according to Sosovalue tallies. It is a sign that demand has weakened both among professional investors and ETF buyers.

CryptoQuant on-chain analyst Darkpost said of the trend, "They don't move like individuals." He suggested that ETF and institutional money can react more sensitively to structural risk signals than to short-term price moves.

This is not the first time a downside outlook for bitcoin has emerged. Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital and trader Crypto Kid have previously said bitcoin could fall below $30,000 if stocks plunge. This forecast raised market caution by presenting an even lower, specific downside level of $23,980.

There are 2 points to watch going forward. One is whether the scale of a U.S. stock-market correction actually grows. The other is whether the Coinbase premium and spot ETF flows turn positive again. If the 2 indicators remain weak, the $23,980 zone could be discussed again in the bitcoin market as a key downside price level.

$BTC reaching $23,979 was not on my 2026 bingo card. In my opinion, this only happens if the overall stock market crashes 50%+. (still at all-time highs) I don't believe Bitcoin goes to zero and I will be looking to buy the right dip whenever the reversal happens. pic.twitter.com/tFyZzmasMe