An analysis says on-chain signals similar to an end-of-bear-market phase have emerged as long-term holders own 79 percent of bitcoin in circulation.

On June 17, blockchain outlet Bitcoin Magazine reported that market research firm K33 said in a recent report the share rose to a record high and aligns with patterns repeatedly seen as major bitcoin bear markets neared bottoms.

Vetle Lunde (베틀 룬데), head of research at K33, said long-term holders are increasingly dominating supply. He said the tilt of circulating supply toward long-term holders has been confirmed near bottom-approach zones in past major bear markets, and signs are again appearing of gradually improving market conditions alongside accumulated buying.

It also pointed to a sharp reduction in movement of older bitcoin. As of June 6, only 218,421 BTC of bitcoin that had not moved for more than 2 years shifted again in 2026. The only year lower by that point was 2012, at 70,600 BTC. By contrast, in 2024, a prior cycle peak period, 1.18 million BTC had moved again by the same date.

K33 also cited easing outflows from spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which had been seen as a recent selling-pressure factor. With trading volume down to the lowest level of the year, K33 said such a pattern has appeared more often in the late stages of a bitcoin bear market than at the start of a new selloff. Lunde said about 50 percent of bitcoin in circulation had moved into loss territory as of last week, a level he said has historically appeared only in the weeks just before major bear market bottoms. He added that an additional decline often occurs before a rebound.

Not all market participants have turned optimistic. Wintermute, Glassnode and Bitfinex said ETF fund flows, stablecoin growth and institutional demand have not yet reached levels consistent with a sustainable reversal. Some forecasts suggested bitcoin could slide to around $30,000 before a full recovery.

Macro factors also remain a burden. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting to be held on the day is the first under Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, drawing strong attention from the crypto market. While expectations favour holding the policy rate, the market is also partly pricing in the possibility of additional hikes in the second half of 2026.

Bitcoin's 30-day correlation coefficient with the S&P 500 stands at around 0.6, and in a bear market it tends to respond more sensitively to changes in the macro environment. Some expect bitcoin price volatility could increase if the Federal Reserve signals a policy shift.

In this situation, the market's next key point is whether expanding long-term holding and easing ETF selling will lead to an actual trend reversal. On-chain indicators suggest a possible approach to a bottom, but it remains to be confirmed whether institutional demand and macro conditions will support it.