Bitcoin is maintaining a long-term uptrend and the current decline is a typical correction phase in a four-year cycle, an assessment said.

On June 17, blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that Anthony Scaramucci (앤서니 스카라무치), founder of SkyBridge Capital, said in a CNBC interview that Bitcoin is following a path similar to past post-halving moves.

Scaramucci drew a line at viewing it as an abnormal bearish phase. He said Bitcoin posted a new all-time high within months after the 2024 halving and then entered a steep correction, but the market is simply passing through the recurring post-halving downturn.

He also said the scale of this correction is relatively milder than past bear markets. Bitcoin has often fallen 60 to 70 percent from its peak in major downturns, but the drop this time is about 50 percent, he said. He added that greater participation by institutional investors and demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds helped limit the decline.

He pointed to the fourth quarter of 2026 as the timing for a renewed rise. Scaramucci expected Bitcoin to regain momentum from late 2026 and extend an upward trend into early 2027. He said the period is about nine months before the next halving scheduled for April 2028 and aligns with past patterns when supply tightened again and investor sentiment started to improve.

He said this cycle differed somewhat from previous patterns in terms of quarterly returns. Bitcoin has typically shown strength in the first and fourth quarters, but it fell 23.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 and declined 22.1 percent in the first quarter of 2026. The second quarter also ended down 3.73 percent. Even so, Scaramucci maintained that the market would regain momentum in the second half of 2026.

He also dismissed concerns about Strategy's Bitcoin accumulation strategy led by Michael Saylor (마이클 세일러). The company’s Bitcoin holdings are currently in an unrealised loss of about $8.57 billion, but Scaramucci said its financial condition is solid. He added that the company recently repurchased some convertible bonds, reducing risk factors that had worried investors.

He said sentiment indicators also support the potential for a rebound. Bitcoin's relative strength index has fallen to historically low levels, and investor enthusiasm and Google search interest have also dropped sharply, he said. He said extreme pessimism could instead become a starting point for a rebound, citing an instance when Bitcoin rose over a short period from $61,000 to as high as $65,000.

Scaramucci’s core argument is that the decline should be seen as a correction within a cycle rather than a structural breakdown. Whether institutional money and ETF demand are supporting the downside more than in the past, and whether a recovery actually appears from the fourth quarter of 2026, are expected to be the next points to watch.

Anthony Scaramucci on Bitcoin & crypto: "I still like it. I own a lot of it." "I think Bitcoin starts to rally late in the 4th quarter of 2026 into early 2027." "Is Michael (Saylor) in trouble? He's definitely not in trouble...I like it. I like him. I think he's going to be… pic.twitter.com/1TkMvfePAD