Matt Hougan, known as chief investment officer at Bitwise, argued that what matters in Bitcoin investing is not whether a bottom is forming but whether the top has yet to come.

CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on June 17 that Hougan said the very way of asking whether Bitcoin has already bottomed is the wrong question for long-term investors.

He said his concern began with the fact that recent Bitcoin bottom analyses released one after another by major institutions are reaching different conclusions. Galaxy Digital, NYDIG and Standard Chartered each analysed the bottom zone, but their criteria and conclusions did not match. Hougan explained the situation by saying, "If the top has not yet come, we should pay more attention to the fact that Bitcoin is sending a strong buy signal."

In practice, institutional views diverged. Galaxy Digital said it reviewed 13 bottom indicators based on 17 years of Bitcoin price data and found 4 met the conditions, 2 partly matched and 7 had not yet been met. Under its base scenario, it put the bottom of this cycle in a range of 40,000 to 46,000 dollars.

NYDIG said the current downturn shows characteristics similar to past cycle bottoms, but has not reached the 'full capitulation' stage seen at historical bottoms. It added that if institutional inflows have made this cycle's decline shallower than in the past, the bottom may already have been formed.

Standard Chartered put this cycle's bottom at 59,000 dollars. It cited progress in U.S.-Iran nuclear deal talks and the possibility that expected selling pressure from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds could ease during a fundraising process for a SpaceX listing. Standard Chartered also issued a forecast that Bitcoin could reach 100,000 dollars within the year.

Market figures offered a similar direction. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong (브라이언 암스트롱) said on X, formerly Twitter, "I think Bitcoin bottomed around 60,000 dollars." He said he is still maintaining a long position in Bitcoin and said he is optimistic that by 2030 it will be at a much higher price than now.

Hougan said the environment supporting the long-term investment case is still alive. He said expanding government debt, rising inflation, distrust of centralised institutions and advancing digitalisation remain long-term drivers for Bitcoin gains. He also mentioned that current market conditions are better than during the 2022 crypto winter.

As a result, in the Bitcoin market, separate from the short-term bottom debate, a key point to watch is how institutional inflows and shifts in the macro environment will change this cycle's price path. Institutions differed in judging the bottom, but the view that the long-term upper end is still open is prompting investors to re-examine the investment case.