Bitcoin exchange inflows from long-term holders are staying at the lowest level since 2015, data showed.

CoinPost reported on Sunday that CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost analysed the annual average exchange inflow of long-term holders (LTH) with holding periods of at least 6 months at slightly above 800 BTC a day.

The figure is slightly up from about 630 BTC in early May, but it is still near the lowest range seen since 2015. Because long-term holders moving bitcoin to exchanges typically leads to selling, the metric is seen as a signal to gauge potential selling pressure in the market.

Darkfost said short-term moves and long-term trends should be separated. In the short term, there are periods when exchange inflows run above normal levels. But on an annual average basis, inflows have been steadily declining. Darkfost said this trend could be a "structural change" rather than a temporary fluctuation.

The analyst cited exchange inflows of "five times or more" than the annual average as a threshold for unusual selling pressure. He said such spikes were confirmed multiple times in the past, but their medium- to long-term impact has now fallen sharply even if similar moves can reoccur in the short term.

A changing composition of the long-term holder cohort was cited as a backdrop. The explanation was that long-term holders may have changed in character as institutional investors entered the market in earnest after the approval of bitcoin ETFs. Even if the long-term holder figure points to the same group, the types of investors filling it may differ from the past.

Darkfost said bitcoin holding propensity has strengthened as institutional investors and long-term-oriented participants increased, and exchange transfers may therefore be structurally declining. He interpreted the drop in exchange inflows as tied not simply to delayed selling but to a shift in holding strategies.

The market can interpret reduced exchange moves by long-term holders as a signal of easing immediate selling pressure. Darkfost said sharp increases in inflows can still occur in the short term. A stable long-term indicator does not mean short-term volatility has disappeared.

The points to watch going forward are whether the long-term holder annual average inflow rises rapidly again and whether institutional funds that flowed in after ETF approval actually maintain a long-term holding tendency. If changes in the nature of long-term holders become established, the structure of selling pressure in the bitcoin market could develop differently from the past.