[DigitalToday reporter Yeseul Kim (김예슬)] An analysis has found that XRP could have topped $24 in the 2021 bull market if there had been no U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit.

Decrypt, a blockchain media outlet, reported on June 13 that market analyst Jungle Inc claimed XRP’s potential record high would be about $24.50 if bitcoin’s rise between the peaks of its two most recent bull markets is applied to XRP.

The key point of the analysis is that XRP did not fully follow the broader market trend in the last bull market. Jungle Inc said XRP missed the 2021 market cycle. He pointed out that the timing of the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple overlapped with the period when bitcoin entered a full-scale revaluation phase.

The calculation is straightforward. Jungle Inc applied bitcoin’s 3.49-times rise between cycle peaks in 2021 and its 1.83-times rise in the 2025 cycle. Applying that to XRP’s 2018 high of $3.84 yields a potential peak of about $24.50, he explained. He said the figure was not based on “unrealistic expectations” but on the path bitcoin actually followed.

The point where the trend diverged was late 2020. After the crypto market returned to a recovery trend, XRP initially followed the upward move, but the situation changed when the SEC moved to sue Ripple in December 2020. Delistings followed at several exchanges in the United States and Canada, and selling pressure increased. Jungle Inc argued these changes created “unique obstacles” for XRP and prevented it from fully participating in the broader market rally.

The gap is also evident in the figures. XRP is currently at $1.13, about 70 percent below its 2017 to 2018 peak. Bitcoin, by contrast, is at $63,600, about 223 percent above its 2017 to 2018 peak. While bitcoin has moved well past its previous peak, XRP missed a significant part of the market growth period from early 2020 through late 2024, the analysis said.

Jungle Inc said the environment is different now. He mentioned that the SEC lawsuit has already been resolved, spot ETFs are trading, and institutional infrastructure in the crypto industry continues to expand. He argued that XRP could reach the “low-to-mid $20s” even if the pace of adoption expansion remains around the average. If adoption increases more strongly, prices could rise further as the market revalues the asset, he added.

Still, the claim is closer to a scenario analysis by a market analyst. The actual price path could vary depending on the pace of XRP adoption, whether the broader market’s bullish trend continues, and changes in supply and demand after the end of the Ripple lawsuit. For now, the next point to watch is whether XRP can make up for the gap left by past bull markets.