Analysis suggests bitcoin (BTC) has become much less likely to plunge below $60,000 again. The main rationale is that long-term holders are accumulating more bitcoin, reducing the amount actually circulating in the market.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on May 21 that bitcoin held for more than 1 year has risen to 71.6 percent of the total circulating supply. On-chain, long-term holdings have exceeded 15.04 million BTC, the first time since October 2025.

Markets are interpreting this trend as a signal of shrinking supply. A rise in long-term holders means less bitcoin is likely to be sold immediately into the market. Crypto analyst CryptoJeno said the current trend resembles a "historical accumulation phase" seen just ahead of major bull markets in the past. He said similar patterns appeared in 2013, 2016, 2019 and late 2022 before the market moved into an upswing.

Technical indicators also pointed to reduced downside risk. Analyst Psychedelic focused on bitcoin's weekly relative strength index (RSI) regaining the 50 level after an oversold phase. He said cases in which bitcoin went on to set a new low after such a move were rare, and he assessed the market as increasingly likely to enter a long expansion phase.

This rebound came about 105 days after bitcoin's weekly RSI entered oversold territory for what the record shows was the fourth time. Psychedelic cited the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022 as an exception. At the time, a major market shock led to further sharp falls without the RSI regaining 50, but he said the current market structure is different.

Long-term holder behaviour also differed from past market peaks. CryptoJeno said selling by long-term holders rose quickly at the bull-market highs in 2017 and 2021, but accumulation is continuing now. That is being interpreted as meaning even less bitcoin is readily available to come to market, and that participants are still placing more weight on the possibility of a long-term rise.

Still, miners' moves remain cautious. Analyst Phelin Ai said holdings by Binance Pool miners fell in May to 41,915 from 41,798, and pointed to some supply moving to exchanges. Indicators such as the miner position index (MPI) and the Puell Multiple also suggested profit pressure in the mining industry remains in place.

Phelin Ai assessed the current situation as a phase in which miners are watching from the sidelines without confidence in the direction. Long-term holders continue to accumulate bitcoin, but the mining industry is not yet sending aggressive buy signals.

Markets are focusing on the possibility that changes in the supply structure will ultimately be a key driver of bitcoin's price direction. Based on current data, analysis suggests growing accumulation by long-term holders and technical rebound signals are working to reduce downside pressure. Still, with miners staying cautious, attention is on which way future supply-and-demand conditions will tilt.