Bitcoin has fallen to around $77,000 after being blocked by resistance at its 200-day moving average, raising market caution about the possibility of further declines.

On May 21, blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that CryptoQuant assessed the current bitcoin trend as very similar to the bear market structure of March 2022.

The rebound climbed about 37 percent from the April low and met resistance near $82,400. It then quickly slid in recent trading to the $76,000 to $77,000 range. CryptoQuant pointed out that in March 2022 bitcoin also rebounded about 43 percent before hitting its 200-day moving average and extending a downtrend for several months.

Julio Moreno (훌리오 모레노), head of research at CryptoQuant, pointed out that in bear markets the 200-day moving average has consistently acted as the boundary between a temporary rebound and a resumption of the trend. He described it as a strong technical confirmation signal that the bear market structure remains in place.

Supply and demand indicators are also weighing on the market. Speculative demand in the perpetual futures market slowed markedly around $82,000, and fund flows for spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recently shifted from net buying to net selling. Since late April, the Coinbase bitcoin price premium has stayed negative, indicating that U.S. spot demand did not support the rebound. "In a sustained bull market, it is common for that indicator to be positive," Moreno said, calling the current situation a negative signal.

An on-chain profit-taking indicator also sent a warning signal. The unrealised profit rate rose to 17.7 percent on May 5, the highest level since June 2025, similar to the level seen just before the March 2022 pullback.

Two scenarios are being discussed for the future price path. If bitcoin rebounds from the $77,000 support zone, it could recover to an intermediate resistance area and then face renewed downward pressure. If the current range breaks, it could quickly test a new low for this cycle.

A key support level was first suggested around $70,000 on an on-chain basis. That range aligns with the traders' on-chain realised price. Below that, $61,400, where the 200-day moving average sits, and $54,500, where the 300-day moving average is located, were presented as the next support zones. Some also see the 200-day to 300-day moving average range as a major bottoming area if the downtrend continues for several more months.

Investor sentiment also remains subdued. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at 29, remaining in the fear zone. Such a sentiment environment is cited as a factor that can increase market volatility and downside reactions.

Market participants need to watch ETF fund flows, on-chain demand and whether bitcoin can regain the 200-day moving average as key variables for now. The current indicators do not conclude that the pattern is exactly the same as in 2022, but they show a phase in which risk management takes priority over resuming the rebound.