Bitcoin (BTC) is down about 40 percent from its all-time high in October 2025, but a long-term price model suggests it could rebound to as high as $255,000 by year-end.

Cointelegraph reported on May 20 that the market is split over whether the recent correction should be seen as short-term weakness or a pause within a longer upcycle. One key basis cited is analyst Sminston’s “Bitcoin Decay Channel” model.

The model uses a logarithmic long-term trend line to reflect a structure in which gains gradually slow as cycles repeat. Major peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021 formed near the upper band, while bear-market lows repeatedly appeared in the lower support zone, it said.

The latest rebound also began near the bottom of the channel. Bitcoin rebounded near a long-term support line in March and April, and Sminston interpreted this as a sign of long-term buying inflows. In a May 20 post, he presented a year-end Bitcoin price range of $90,000 to $255,000. The forecast range for the end of 2027 was set at $128,000 to $308,000.

The view also aligns with other observations expecting a new Bitcoin record high in 2026. Bernstein analysts maintained a 2026 target of $150,000, citing spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and expanded buying by listed companies. They pushed back the timing of their earlier $200,000 projection to 2027. They judged that the cycle of institutional inflows could last longer than expected.

Arthur Hayes also mentioned the possibility of a recovery to $126,000 this year. He saw rising U.S. war costs and expanding investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure as increasing global liquidity pressure, and said such conditions could work in favor of a higher Bitcoin price.

Some still warn of the risk of further short-term declines. Current charts point to a bearish flag pattern that has persisted for months. If it unfolds in a typical form, an additional correction matching the prior decline could follow, raising the possibility that Bitcoin falls below $56,000. That would mean a further drop of about 30 percent from the current price.

On-chain indicators, however, suggest the downside may be limited. The “Bitcoin HODL Waves” indicator, which tracks how long Bitcoin has remained unmoved in wallets, pointed to the $65,900 to $70,500 band as a potential low if weakness persists.

CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Maum assessed that the base of long-term holders has strengthened more than in previous cycles. He said a stronger preference for long-term holding could make Bitcoin’s bottom higher and smoother, and pointed to around $70,500 as a key defense line.

The market is ultimately in a state where both upside and downside scenarios remain open. The long-term price model leaves room for a new record high by year-end, but chart patterns and on-chain indicators also do not rule out further corrections. As a result, whether Bitcoin holds the long-term support zone where the March to April rebound began, or first absorbs additional downside pressure, is emerging as a key variable for the near-term direction.