A forecast has emerged that bitcoin (BTC) could set its next all-time high in dollar terms between April and December 2027. The analysis cited repeating cycles in bitcoin's relative-strength trend against gold as its basis.

On May 20 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic introduced bitcoin author Adam Livingston's outlook for the timing of bitcoin's next record high based on the BTC/XAU ratio. The BTC/XAU ratio shows how many ounces of gold one bitcoin is worth.

Livingston explained that bitcoin has repeatedly shown strength against gold, followed by a period in which gold regains the upper hand. He argued that once the BTC/XAU ratio forms a low, bitcoin eventually goes on to set a new dollar-based high.

He analysed that this structure has repeated twice since 2017 and that a third cycle now appears to be under way. He focused in particular on how similar the time spans were between the highs and lows of the BTC/XAU ratio in each cycle.

The first case was the 2017 bull market. Bitcoin maintained strength against gold for about 2 years from January 2015, with the BTC/XAU ratio rising to 16 ounces in December 2017. Gold then regained the upper hand and the ratio fell to 3 ounces in January 2019. This period of gold outperformance lasted about 416 days.

A similar pattern appeared in the second cycle. After the 2019 low, bitcoin climbed to a BTC/XAU ratio of 37 ounces in October 2021. It then fell to 9 ounces in January 2023 as another period of gold strength unfolded. This correction lasted about 440 days.

Livingston said the current cycle shows a similar trend. After the January 2023 low, bitcoin strengthened against gold and the BTC/XAU ratio rose to 41 ounces in December 2024. Gold then turned relatively stronger and the ratio fell to 12 ounces in February 2026. Livingston explained that this correction lasted about 433 days.

Livingston also noted that in the recent cycle, the peak in the BTC/XAU ratio formed about 10 months ahead of bitcoin's dollar-based record high. That means gold first turned relatively stronger, and bitcoin later recorded a dollar-denominated peak after some time had passed.

He also cited the time taken from past lows to new record highs. Bitcoin set a dollar-based record 711 days after the 2019 low, and 469 days after the 2023 low. He calculated the average of these recovery periods at 590 days and said the market has entered another early recovery phase since the February 2026 low. He estimated that after 83 days from the February 2026 low, the market was at about 14 percent of the expected recovery period. Based on this, Livingston put bitcoin's next record-high window between April and December 2027.

He added that the scale of gains is gradually slowing. He said reaching a new record high after the 2018 low required a rise of about 500 percent, but after the 2022 low a gain of about 328 percent was enough. He analysed that now a rise of about 95 percent from the February 2026 low of $64,049 would be enough to regain a record high. He argued that such recovery moves show it becomes easier as cycles pass, and that bitcoin's monetary base is strengthening over time.

The market is also citing other long-term models. Bitcoin commentator Swinston Weed, citing the 'Bitcoin DK Channel', put the price range for the end of 2026 at $90,000 to $255,000. Under the same model, the outlook range for the end of 2027 is $128,000 to $308,000.

This forecast is drawing attention for focusing on changes in relative strength against gold rather than bitcoin's absolute price. The market's key points to watch are whether the BTC/XAU ratio recovery since February 2026 will unfold similarly to past cycles, and whether that trend will lead to an actual new dollar-based record high.