Bitcoin’s downside could open to the $65,000 level as short-term holders recently sold more than 10,000 bitcoin while accepting losses.

On May 19, Cointelegraph reported that the decline came as broader crypto-market sentiment weakened amid rising war tensions between the United States and Iran.

Bitcoin is down about 7 percent from a local peak of $82,800 set on May 6. It failed to break above the 200-day moving average near $82,000, and the daily close also slipped below an average market-price indicator. The $78,000 level, cited as the average entry price for short-term holders, was also seen as an overhang for the market.

CryptoQuant data showed that short-term holders with a holding period of less than 155 days transferred more than 10,000 bitcoin to Binance on May 19. Bitcoin was trading at about $76,900 at the time, below their average entry price of $78,440. That suggests recent buyers sent about $769 million worth of bitcoin to exchanges while in loss territory.

CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha said the move shows stress among short-term holders, forced selling and capitulation during a correction. A pattern in which short-term speculative demand locks in losses through panic selling during a sharp drop has also been repeated in the past. In mid-November 2025, after a similar pattern, bitcoin fell 15 percent in less than five days, dropping from $96,000 to $78,400.

A substantial amount of supply is also stuck at a loss. Glassnode said bitcoin currently held at a loss exceeds 7.8 million coins, and the market must absorb that supply first to structurally resume an uptrend. That means even if prices attempt a rebound, sell orders waiting to exit could weigh on the upside.

Institutional flows are also tilting bearish. U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds posted net outflows in 6 of the past 8 sessions. Net outflows on May 19 totaled $648.6 million, the largest since Jan. 29. Global bitcoin investment products also saw $981.5 million in outflows in the week ended May 15.

The technical picture is also uneasy. Bitcoin posted five consecutive daily declines, and crypto analyst Alex Marzel said, "Market momentum is starting to tilt back toward the downside." Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, also said, "The current trend does not look good," adding that the market must defend the $74,500 to $76,000 support zone to regain momentum.

Medium- to long-term indicators are also pointing to a potential downside range for bitcoin. The HODL Waves indicator, which tracks the distribution of bitcoin holding periods, suggested that if weakness persists, a bottom could form in the $65,500 to $70,500 range. Sunny Mom of CryptoQuant said the share of long-term holders has risen compared with the past, reflecting wider institutional adoption. With the supply structure more solid than in previous cycles, the way the bottom forms in this correction could also differ from the past.

In the near term, $76,000 is seen as a dividing line. If bitcoin slips below $76,000, the 50-day simple moving average, the risk of an additional near-term decline to $65,000 could grow. In that scenario, whether stop-loss selling by recent buyers, ETF outflows and weakening spot demand continue at the same time is emerging as a key variable for the next price move.

Markets are getting absolutely hammered. Korean stocks just got crushed again, wiping out ₩200 trillion in a single day and over ₩610 trillion in only 3 sessions. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF saw a staggering $448M walk out the door the second biggest outflow of 2026.… pic.twitter.com/qlh3LKOhMs