[DigitalToday reporter Yeseul Kim] On May 19 (all times local), bitcoin fell below $77,000, extending losses for a fourth straight session.

According to blockchain outlet BeInCrypto on the day, bitcoin was trading at $76,819 at the time of writing and is down about 6 percent over the past week.

Price action points to continued weakness, but internal market indicators are also sending different signals. Three indicators drew attention in this downswing: a sharp deterioration in retail investor sentiment, an increase in wallets holding at least 100 BTC, and a rebound in the BTC-gold ratio showing gold’s relative strength versus bitcoin.

Retail investor sentiment was interpreted as a contrarian signal. Santiment tallied that pessimistic mentions of bitcoin outnumbered optimistic posts for the first time since April 21. Santiment said the crypto market often moves against public expectations, and viewed pessimism at this level as a positive signal. It said small investors are dumping coins in response to this mild decline, and the more people expect further losses, the higher the chances of a rebound.

Moves by large holders were the opposite. The number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC was tallied at 20,229. That is an 11.2 percent increase from 18,191 a year earlier. Holdings per address are about $7.7 million. Such wallets typically have the characteristics of institutions, corporate treasury organisations and long-term holders.

Santiment said the rise in whale wallets is seen as a signal that key participants still trust bitcoin’s future value and scarcity. It also pointed out as particularly notable that the increase in 100-BTC-plus wallets continued even during periods when retail investors repeatedly showed fear, impatience and skepticism.

The third signal is relative strength compared with gold. Delphi Digital presented that the BTC-gold ratio recovered 46 percent from its February low and is now close to 17.6. Over the same period, gold underwent an 18 percent correction from its January high, while bitcoin rose from the mid-$60,000 range. The indicator shows the relative strength of the two assets, it said.

Market variables lie in the macro environment. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is set to chair his first Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 16-17. The market is currently pricing the chance of a rate hike at about 1.2 percent. In the end, an assessment is emerging that whether the three signals identified this time lead to an actual price rebound depends on the outcome of Warsh's first meeting, summer inflation trends and external conditions shaken by tensions with Iran.

As a result, rather than defining the market direction based only on short-term price declines, the outlet said there is a need to also check whether accumulation by large holders, changes in investor sentiment and the recovery in bitcoin’s relative strength versus gold continue.