Retail investor demand for bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 73 percent over the past three weeks, weakening momentum for a rebound.

Cointelegraph reported on Sunday that Binance’s retail bitcoin inflows stayed at a record low, while aggressive selling in the futures market of more than $2 billion pushed bitcoin below $77,000.

A key signal is slowing retail participation in the spot market. CryptoQuant data showed Binance’s monthly retail bitcoin inflows in 2026 averaged 314 BTC. That was sharply down from about 1,200 BTC in March 2024. The metric tracks deposits to Binance from wallets holding less than 1 BTC and is used as a gauge of retail activity.

Darkfost pointed to Binance retail bitcoin inflows hovering near a historic low. Monthly inflows were about 1,800 BTC during the 2022 bear market, and about 1,200 BTC in March 2024 when bitcoin hit a high near $75,000. Compared with prior cycles, retail participation has dropped sharply.

The slowdown in retail demand was also seen during the recent rebound. As of the 30th, the retail investor demand growth rate fell to 3.12 percent from 7.39 percent the previous week. It means buying briefly returned but spot participation cooled again. Darkfost mentioned the possibility that investors may have shifted to spot bitcoin ETFs rather than holding bitcoin directly on exchanges.

Selling pressure in the futures market weighed more heavily on prices. Cryptocurrency analyst Amr Taha said two bouts of large bitcoin taker selling occurred on Binance during the recent decline. The first was about $1.5 billion on the 15th, followed by additional selling of more than $1.1 billion as bitcoin fell below $77,000.

The issue is that spot and futures demand are moving in opposite directions. Crazyblock cited balanced spot demand as a key signal missing from this bitcoin recovery phase. In rallies in October and November 2024 and in May 2025, spot and futures demand rose together. Spot demand ranged from 97,000 BTC to 190,000 BTC, and futures demand also expanded at the same time.

The past 30 days looked different. Futures demand stayed positive at 193,000 BTC, but spot demand recorded negative 28,000 BTC. Spot demand remained in negative territory for 65 straight days. Overall 30-day demand growth also fell 73 percent, shrinking from 232,000 BTC in early May to 62,000 BTC on the 16th. The rebound continued, but spot demand did not support it.

A shift in derivatives leadership between exchanges was also detected. Binance accounted for 40 to 44 percent of global USDT-margined futures trading volume from October 2024 to March 2026, but its share fell to 21.1 percent in May 2026. OKX rose to 26.3 percent, marking the first leadership change in this cycle.

The market now faces a situation in which a recovery in spot buying needs to be confirmed before futures-led demand for bitcoin’s rebound to regain strength. If retail participation does not return and spot demand fails to move out of negative territory, the current price rebound may continue to follow a different pattern from previous upswings.