Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break above $82,000 and then slipped to around $76,000, but some analysis says the market still has room to recover $80,000. Short-term sentiment has cooled after large-scale bullish position liquidations, but institutional buying, macroeconomic changes and Middle East factors are being cited as potential catalysts for a rebound.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain outlet, reported on May 18 that about $400 million of liquidations occurred in bullish bitcoin positions over the past four days. Bitcoin at one point tried to break above $82,000 but retreated to around $76,000 after hitting resistance. Still, the market mood is more focused on the chance of a renewed rebound than on further declines.

The most direct variable is seen as Strategy's aggressive bitcoin buying. Strategy, a U.S.-listed company led by Michael Saylor (마이클 세일러), bought an additional roughly $2 billion worth of bitcoin over the past week. The company has raised funds using common stock MSTR and preferred stock STRC, and it has recently moved to secure additional capacity for purchases through capital structure adjustments.

Strategy repurchased $1.5 billion of debt maturing in 2029. The move is seen as reducing potential dilution for existing shareholders while also securing room for future share issuance and bitcoin purchases. The market views it as reaffirming that Strategy can keep buying bitcoin even in a bear market.

Changes in the macroeconomic environment are also being cited as supportive for bitcoin. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.60 percent, the highest in 16 months. That is interpreted as meaning investors are demanding higher returns to hold U.S. Treasuries. With about $2 trillion of long-term Treasuries set to mature in 2026, worries over the U.S. fiscal burden are also growing.

Markets see this trend as potentially stimulating demand for scarce assets. As trust in central banks and government finances weakens, investors may be more likely to move into assets such as gold and bitcoin. Gold prices have recently given back a large part of their gains, but bitcoin rebounded to $76,500 from around $65,000 in late February, maintaining a relatively strong trend.

Middle East developments are also emerging as a short-term variable. Brent crude rose to $113 a barrel amid Strait of Hormuz-related tensions and supply concerns. Oil prices are up more than 50 percent after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. Some analysis also says supply pressure intensified after the Trump administration did not extend certain waiver measures related to Russian oil.

Still, markets see that if tensions between the United States and Iran ease, risk appetite could revive. The possibility of an actual agreement is not high, but some also suggest that if there is diplomatic progress, bitcoin could again try to move above $80,000.

Inflation pressures remain a variable. With high energy prices persisting, expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts are limited. Even so, some investors are focusing on the fact that while U.S. stocks are near record highs, bitcoin remains about 39 percent below its peak.

Ultimately, markets are viewing three key variables: whether Strategy continues additional purchases, shifts in capital flows as confidence in U.S. Treasuries weakens, and the possibility of easing Middle East tensions. Short-term volatility has increased after the recent sharp drop, but assessments continue that bitcoin's attempt to recover $80,000 is not over.