A long-term scenario has been presented suggesting bitcoin (BTC) could surge to between $150,000 and $2.4 million by 2030.

On May 18 (local time), The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported that major artificial intelligence (AI) models and cryptocurrency platforms suggested bitcoin could reach $1 million in the long run, but differed on timing and range. The key point in the outlook is that the possibility of $1 million is higher after 2040 than in 2030.

What about the 2030 outlook? ChatGPT put bitcoin’s 2030 price at $150,000 in a bearish scenario, $350,000 in a base scenario, and $750,000 to $1 million in a bullish scenario. Google’s Gemini, by contrast, set a higher 2030 range of $300,000 to $2.4 million. It presented an average range of about $500,000 to $1.2 million.

Forecasts from crypto platforms were relatively conservative. Telegaon projected bitcoin in 2030 at a minimum of $352,330, an average of $405,109 and a maximum of $434,504. Changelly suggested $129,356 to $297,128, and put the average at about $184,000.

In the 2040 outlook, signals of a move above $1 million were clearer. ChatGPT suggested a minimum of $500,000, an average of $1.5 million, and a bullish range of $3 million to $5 million. Gemini presented a very wide range from $400,000 to $14 million, and also mentioned the possibility of bitcoin establishing itself as a global reserve asset. Telegaon projected $904,543 to $981,512, while Changelly forecast $230,107 to $1.18 million.

In 2050, the gap in forecasts widened somewhat. ChatGPT, on the premise of a scenario in which bitcoin becomes a global reserve asset, an international financial settlement layer and a core store of value, suggested a minimum of $1 million, an average of $5 million and a bullish $10 million. Gemini, citing forecasts from asset manager VanEck and others, projected $130,000 to $2.9 million, and viewed more than $53 million as possible in an ultra-bullish scenario. Telegaon projected $1.45 million to $1.71 million, while Changelly expected a range of $651,759 to $2.75 million.

Factors for a long-term rise were cited as expanding institutional demand and declining supply. Bitcoin’s total issuance is capped at 21 million coins, and after the 2028 halving, mining rewards fall to 1.5625 BTC from 3.125 BTC. Inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), improvements to regulatory frameworks and expanded use for payments, remittances and reserve assets were also presented as variables.

Recent price moves were also mentioned as a backdrop to the outlook. Bitcoin first topped $100,000 in 2024 after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved multiple spot bitcoin ETFs, and in 2025 it hit an all-time high (ATH) of $126,198. It has since fallen below $77,000 after U.S. President Donald Trump warned he would resume air strikes on Iran.

Still, a $1 million forecast does not mean it will soon become reality. With circulating supply exceeding 20 million coins, if bitcoin rises to $1 million its market capitalisation would exceed $20 trillion. Tighter regulation, bans by major economies, high volatility, the rise of competing blockchains, exchange hacks and wallet breaches, and the environmental burden of mining were also presented as long-term risk factors.

Ultimately, the long-term outlook converges on the view that the $1 million scenario could gain strength when supply contraction, institutional inflows and improvements to regulatory frameworks align. But with wide disparities in forecasts, bitcoin’s price path could vary significantly depending on the pace of adoption, the macroeconomic environment and regulatory changes.