Bitcoin is continuing to test a breakout as selling pressure eases around $76,875, but large whale wallets and a smart money index still put more weight on selling.

On May 18 (local time), blockchain outlet BeInCrypto reported that Bitcoin is testing the direction of a bull flag pattern between key support and resistance levels.

The market’s main issue is a clash between technical rebound signals and caution among large funds. Bitcoin rose more than 27 percent from March 29 to May 6, then entered a consolidation in a short downward-sloping channel. Since May 15, sell-side volume has fallen noticeably and support at the lower end of the channel has held.

Binance Research analysed that the amount of supply available to sell is shrinking based on 4 on-chain indicators. Bitcoin that has not moved for more than 1 year accounted for about 60 percent of the total, and exchange holdings fell to 15.0 percent from a COVID-19-era peak of 17.6 percent.

The MVRV indicator, which shows short-term holder profitability, also moved back above 1.0. That suggests investors who entered recently may have moved into a zone of slight unrealised profit for the first time since November 2024. This trend was cited as evidence that the lower end of the channel is being structurally defended.

Large investors, however, moved the other way. The supply share of wallets holding 100,000 to 1 million BTC fell to 3.31 percent on May 18 from 3.46 percent on Feb. 20. There was no meaningful re-accumulation even as Bitcoin rose to an early May peak. With no meaningful increase in buying even during the rebound to that peak, it is possible to interpret that big players still see this rebound phase as weak.

The market, in the end, needs to confirm direction around specific price levels. Based on a low of $64,884 and a high of $82,830, $78,595 was presented as near-term overhead resistance. By contrast, $75,975 is the first line of defence. If Bitcoin closes below that price on a daily chart basis, it could open room down to around $73,857. If it slides below $71,739, the current bull flag pattern would effectively be invalidated.

On the upside, support at the upper end of the channel is around $81,665. If Bitcoin regains that area and rises above $82,830, a breakout would be confirmed and the earlier 27 percent uptrend would be more likely to resume. For the bull flag to be confirmed, Bitcoin must clearly break above the upper boundary along with rising volume. Until then, the more the market tests the lower end, the greater the chance of a downside break rather than trend continuation.

In this situation, $75,975 is acting as more than a simple support line. If it holds, attempts to break above $82,830 could continue, but if it fails the support, a correction scenario falling below $73,857 could gain traction. The market is expected to determine at this level which is stronger: easing selling pressure or continued whale selling.