Bitcoin has seen three positive factors converge in May, but it has traded below $77,000, putting the brakes on expectations of $100,000.

On May 18, local time, blockchain outlet BeInCrypto reported that Bitcoin fell about 6 percent over the past week. It rose as high as $82,000 at one point but failed to hold onto the gains.

Factors supporting expectations of a rise included a Beijing meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, strength in U.S. tech shares led by Nvidia, and passage of a Clarity bill review by the U.S. Senate Banking Committee. In the market, those factors produced only a short-term rebound and did not lead to a strong trend reversal that could push Bitcoin toward $100,000.

The U.S.-China summit raised expectations of easing geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin rose 2 to 2.3 percent around the meeting, climbing to around $82,000 intraday. The market views Bitcoin as responding sensitively to shifts in macro politics and trade talks as the likelihood of U.S.-China cooperation increases and risk appetite revives.

Nvidia was also cited as another structural positive factor. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang (젠슨 황) joined Trump's delegation on the China visit, showing that artificial intelligence chips and access to the Chinese market were core agenda items in the countries' talks. With the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hitting record highs, Bitcoin also moved higher alongside tech shares amid that correlation.

Expectations for institutionalisation also remain. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee on May 14 passed an amended version of the Clarity Act, a digital asset market structure bill, by 15 to 9. The bill divides oversight authority for digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and classifies many digital assets, including Bitcoin, as digital commodities. Bitcoin jumped back to $82,000 right after the news, but then slipped to around $80,500 to $81,000. The market sees as burdens the need for the bill to secure 60 votes in the full Senate and the possibility that final approval could be pushed back to August.

A bullish medium- to long-term outlook remains. Franklin Templeton's Christopher Jensen forecast a return of Bitcoin to $100,000 in an internal base scenario. Market estimates cluster around $95,000 to $120,000 by the end of 2026, and a $150,000 scenario was also mentioned if the three positive factors operate at the same time.

But short-term views are mixed. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin is likely to fill the Chicago Mercantile Exchange gap at $79,100 within days. He said if it loses that area, the market would need a clear signal of support and resistance flipping for a move back upward. He saw the area around $71,000 as a possible rebound and support zone. Lennart Snyder also assessed that the downtrend became clear after resistance at $82,800.

There are also significant remaining variables. Persistent inflation, rising Treasury yields, temporary outflows from spot exchange-traded funds, legislative delays and geopolitical tensions are cited as burdens.

Ultimately, the market is watching whether these factors can offset interest rate and regulatory uncertainty, rather than whether easing U.S.-China relations, a tech rally and progress on legislation operate at the same time. Whether Bitcoin re-establishes itself in the $80,000 range or falls to test support in the low $70,000s remains a turning point for the path to $100,000.

$11 trillion has been added to U.S. stocks over the past 45 days The S&P 500 rose +18%, the Nasdaq rose +28%, and NVIDIA rose +38%. Bitcoin also ended up benefiting, rising more than 25% during this period. And all of this, without any peace agreement between the US and Iran!… pic.twitter.com/8QXdRLt34h