Bitcoin is again stirring divided market views over whether it will repeat a past pattern of sharp declines in May in years when the United States holds midterm elections.

On May 18 (local time), blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that some cryptocurrency analysts said the sharp May drops of 2018 and 2022 could return. Others said the chance of a similar plunge has diminished thanks to gains in spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and inflows of corporate money.

The debate is rooted in two past bear markets. In May 2018, Bitcoin fell from around $10,000 to roughly $7,000 by the end of the month. In May 2022, it dropped by nearly 30 percent from $40,000 to around $28,500 and then fell further to $20,000 in June. As 2026 is also classified as a bear-market year tied to U.S. midterm elections, concerns have grown that the same pattern could be repeated.

Analysts taking a bearish view focused on key price levels. Analyst Merlijn The Trader said on X, formerly Twitter, "In midterm election years, Bitcoin has crashed every time." He said Bitcoin could slide to $33,000 even with positives such as the U.S. Congress pushing the CLARITY Act, a friendly stance by the Trump administration, and the possibility of a U.S.-China trade deal.

Joao Wedson, chief executive officer of Alphractal, also said the odds of a new capitulation phase rise if Bitcoin stays below $78,000. Bitcoin was trading at about $76,900 and is down about 6 percent over the past 7 days.

Others do not expect a large drop on the scale seen in the past. CoinEx analyst Jeff Ko noted there were cases when a midterm election year overlapped with a Bitcoin bear market, but those periods also had macro factors such as aftershocks from Mt. Gox, China’s crackdown on initial coin offerings (ICOs), U.S. Federal Reserve tightening, and the collapse of Terra and FTX. Some traders may see 2026 as another "sell in May" period, but he suggested it is hard to explain the current market using past cycles alone.

Ko focused in particular on changes in market structure. He said ETFs, corporate treasury allocations and the CLARITY Act being discussed in Congress have broadened the buyer base much more than in past cycles and pushed the market further into the institutional mainstream. He said Bitcoin is therefore unlikely to repeat the 70 to 80 percent plunge seen in previous cycles.

Even on the bullish side, a short-term support line was clearly laid out. MN Fund founder Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin’s current move does not signal a new low and is moving sideways in a consolidation phase after a 40 percent rise. He warned, however, that the $76,000 range is an important support zone preventing a bigger drop, and if it breaks the market could move to a lower floor.

Ultimately, the market’s key question is less whether the May plunge pattern in past midterm-election years will work again, and more whether Bitcoin’s market structure is the same as it was then. In the near term, defending the $78,000 and $76,000 levels has emerged as a key variable. Over the medium term, attention is on how much ETF and corporate money, and legislative progress, will limit any decline.

The most brutal pattern in Bitcoin history. Nobody wants to hear this. But the pattern is perfect. Mid-term election years. Bitcoin dumps. Every time. 2014: Sell in May. -61 percent. 2018: Sell in May. -65 percent. 2022: Sell in May. -66 percent. Three cycles. Three dumps. Zero exceptions. 2026… pic.twitter.com/jErVlpY4BZ