Bitcoin long-term holdings rose to about 15.26 million BTC, the highest since August last year.

On May 17 local time, blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that long-term holder wallets absorbed an additional 316,000 BTC over the past 30 days.

The key is that long-term holders (LTH) have shifted from selling back to accumulation. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said long-term holder supply continues to increase and that these investors are generally far more stable than short-term holders.

Compared with late November last year, the trend has clearly changed. At the time, long-term holder wallets reduced holdings by about 650,000 BTC over 30 days, but recently increased them by 316,000 BTC over the same period. The change suggests that investors who bought near the cycle peak about six months ago are holding again.

Long-term holdings could increase further by the end of this month. Some 800,000 BTC moved from Coinbase last year will pass the six-month threshold on May 23 and be classified as long-term holdings. This has raised the possibility that on-chain supply indicators could rise further by the end of the month.

Exchange flows appear to be stabilising. Bitcoin is trading in the $77,000 range, and crypto YouTube channel Coin Bureau analysed that the gap between exchange inflows and outflows has narrowed for six consecutive trading days. Stable fund flows, declining exchange reserves and whale accumulation have been presented as signals that have repeated at major Bitcoin bottoms since 2019.

Market attention is shifting to minutes from the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) due to be released this week. The document is drawing attention as the last policy record the market will check for the first time since Jerome Powell's term as chair ended. Powell's term ended on May 15, and Kevin Warsh was confirmed as his successor after a Senate vote. Powell will remain on the Federal Reserve Board until January 2028.

The minutes matter because signals on the direction of monetary policy can shape risk-asset sentiment. Yardeni Research forecast that after the FOMC signalled a hawkish stance at its June meeting, it could raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its July meeting. It said additional rate hikes later this year cannot be ruled out.

The FOMC previously held the target range for the benchmark interest rate at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, keeping it unchanged for three consecutive meetings. Internal divisions were large. Governor Stephen Miran argued for a 0.25 percentage point cut, while Lori Logan, Neel Kashkari and Beth Hammack opposed dovish language in the statement.

Against this backdrop, the Bitcoin market is reflecting three pillars at once: expanding long-term holdings, signals of falling exchange balances, and Federal Reserve policy as a variable. With the first June meeting to be held under Warsh, market participants are watching whether the minutes reveal the inflation tolerance range or future policy changes. In the short term, rising long-term holdings could reduce circulating supply, but actual price moves are likely to be determined in tandem with the Fed's policy signals.