An analysis said bitcoin’s risk of turning back to a downtrend has increased as it touches its 200-day moving average, which served as strong resistance in past bear markets.

Cointelegraph reported on May 14 that CryptoQuant raised the possibility of a short-term decline, citing a move to a key resistance level and expanded profit-taking.

Bitcoin fell to $66,000 in early April and then rebounded for 6 weeks to hit its 200-day moving average of $82,400. CryptoQuant pointed out that this area was also a major resistance level in the 2022 bear market. At the time, bitcoin touched the line in March and then continued its downward trend.

Market indicators also sent warning signals. Traders’ unrealised profit ratio was 17.7 percent on May 5, the highest since June last year. CryptoQuant interpreted this as potential selling pressure that could spur profit-taking.

Profit-taking has also increased. Daily realised profit jumped to its highest level since early December last year. On May 4, 14,600 BTC was cashed out, worth about $1.2 billion at current value. CryptoQuant said surges of realised profit of this scale often appeared ahead of local peaks during bear-market rebounds.

Bitcoin was down 2.3 percent over the past 24 hours at $79,300. It rebounded after early April as risk appetite returned on the possibility of easing tensions in the Middle East, but it has recently reacted more sensitively to U.S. economic data. Rising inflation concerns after the U.S. Labor Department said on May 14 that the producer price index rose 1.4 percent in April was also cited as a factor behind the decline.

If bitcoin falls further, support was suggested around $70,000. That level is the average price at which all bitcoin last traded. CryptoQuant explained that the area was a key zone in bear markets where resistance shifted to support, and it also aligns with short-term holders’ average purchase price, which could reduce incentives for additional selling.

Still, there are bullish views. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe said bitcoin could quickly rise to $90,000 if the U.S. Senate advances the long-discussed Clarity bill. Maelstrom chief investment officer Arthur Hayes said bitcoin returning to its record high of $126,000 was already a set course.