An analysis says bitcoin held by investors with long-term holding tendencies is nearing 4 million BTC, rapidly reducing the supply actually available for circulation in the market. It said continued accumulation by institutions and high-conviction investors could, if demand expands again, increase upward price pressure due to supply shortages.

On May 13 local time, blockchain media outlet Coindesk reported that Bitfinex, citing Bitgo data, said so-called "conviction buyers" had increased their bitcoin holdings to nearly 4 million BTC.

Bitfinex said the amount has risen by about 300 percent since the end of 2025. At a current bitcoin price of about $80,000, the holdings would be valued at more than $320 billion.

The market is focusing on the view that the trend goes beyond a simple increase in investment and is changing bitcoin's supply structure itself. Bitfinex analysed that bitcoin's realized value is moving toward large holders who trade infrequently, and that they are absorbing supply over the long term regardless of price volatility.

Some assessments say the move marks the strongest level of long-term accumulation over two consecutive quarters since the 2020 COVID-19 shock. The long-term holders include not only individual investors but also institutional investors.

Cryptocurrency developer Jameson Lopp (제임슨 롭) said the holdings are separate from an estimated 5.6 million BTC that is believed not to have moved for more than 10 years. The amount of bitcoin currently in circulation stands at about 20.03 million.

The market is also focusing on the possibility that expanding long-term holdings could reduce liquid supply in the spot market. Bitfinex analysed that as long-term investors move bitcoin off exchanges, the amount immediately tradable in public markets is shrinking.

One representative case cited is Strategy. Strategy recently increased its total holdings to 818,869 BTC. The company bought bitcoin with about $62 billion, and is said to be sitting on about $4.6 billion in unrealised gains.

Some have urged caution about how the data are calculated. Mati Greenspan (마티 그린스펀), founder of Quantum Economics, assessed that Bitgo's classification criteria for "conviction buyers" are not immediately clear. He stressed, however, that the bigger trend itself is clear. "When liquid supply shrinks and demand recovers, bitcoin's steepest rallies have formed," Greenspan said.

The market is also seeing analysis that price resilience is strengthening. CEX.IO Research analysed that about 70 percent of recently bought bitcoin has now moved into profit territory.

CEX.IO said the situation could serve as a psychological buffer that restrains sharp sell-offs by investors. If many new investors are in profit, the need to quickly close positions falls even if a short-term correction occurs, which could ultimately contribute to market stability, it analysed.

Changes in market conditions supporting the long-term holding trend are also drawing attention. Ran Hammer (란 해머), vice president of business development at Orbs, assessed that bitcoin investors now prefer long-term accumulation strategies over simple trading.

He said in particular that as financial services allowing borrowers to raise funds using bitcoin holdings as collateral increase, the need to sell assets falls. He added that the shift is fundamentally changing the bitcoin supply equation, with more supply structurally moving off the market.

Changes in the character of institutional money are also cited as an important variable. Connor Howe (코너 하우), co-founder and chief executive of Enso, assessed that bitcoin's scarcity narrative is now moving beyond theory and becoming embedded in actual market structure.

He analysed that as ETF inflows and institutional accumulation begin to take on a structural, long-term holding character rather than short-term speculation, more bitcoin supply is moving to conviction holders. He added that if demand accelerates again, supply shortages could emerge more strongly than before.

The market is also seeing analysis that the key to bitcoin's future trajectory lies in supply structure changes rather than simple price fluctuations. With a higher share of long-term holders and a large portion of recent purchases remaining in profit territory, the decline in bitcoin supply available to trade in the market is emerging as an important variable for future price moves.