[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin slid to the $75,000 range on a shock from U.S. producer price index (PPI) data.
Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Tuesday that the bitcoin price has fallen sharply since the April PPI release.
The decline was attributed to stronger-than-expected producer prices following the consumer price index (CPI) a day earlier, increasing pressure across risk assets. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said April's PPI posted its biggest increase since March 2022. Markets took it as a signal that the U.S. Federal Reserve could further tighten financial conditions.
In the background is a war between the United States and Iran, and the resulting rise in oil prices. Worries also grew that high energy prices could ripple through inflation and further squeeze consumers' spending power. Market analysis firm The Kobeissi Letter assessed on X, formerly Twitter, that consumers could face another serious squeeze on spending power.
Expectations for rate cuts also faded quickly. CME Group's FedWatch tool put the chance of a rate cut at the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting at 1.4 percent. The warning was that if oil prices stay high, short- and long-term interest rates could rise together, weighing on stock market valuations. Asset manager Mosaic Asset Co. also pointed to the possibility that rising rates could become an obstacle to risk assets' upward momentum.
Still, despite a short-term price adjustment, traders have not completely abandoned the possibility of an upside breakout. Analyst Dan Crypto Trades said that if bitcoin breaks above the $82,000 zone, there is a strong chance the $84,000 gap will be filled, which could then lead to higher levels. He added that U.S. stocks recovered fairly well from weakness right after the CPI release, and that the market is now waiting for clearer signals related to the Middle East conflict.
Technically, a price gap in the CME bitcoin futures market was also cited as a short-term variable. Analyst Rekt Capital assessed that bitcoin closed below the top of the red zone on a weekly closing basis, confirming the possibility that it could trade sideways within the CME gap for some time. It suggests bitcoin failed to break through resistance and is reacting more sensitively to macro factors.
In this situation, the market's next points to watch are two. One is whether the Middle East war and oil price moves will add further pressure on inflation. The other is whether bitcoin can overcome weakness below $80,000 and test the $82,000 resistance again. For now, inflation and the rate outlook remain key variables shaping bitcoin's short-term direction.
BREAKING: Month-over-month US PPI Inflation officially rises +1.5% in April, marking the biggest monthly jump in inflation since March 2022. All of the data is very clear: consumers are about to face another wave serious pressure on spending power.