An analysis said Bitcoin has a 77 percent chance of rewriting its record high within a year if the current move, in which it has narrowed its decline from the peak to about 35 percent, follows past patterns.

Cointelegraph reported on Tuesday that network economist Timothy Peterson said he had reviewed all cases in which Bitcoin recovered from a 50 percent decline to a 35 percent decline and found that 7 of 9 instances led to a new all-time high within a year.

The analysis focuses on a phase in which Bitcoin claws back part of its losses after a sharp correction. In a post on X, Peterson said he looked at every point when Bitcoin moved back from a minus 50 percent drop to a minus 35 percent drop. He said the current market has entered that phase.

A chart Peterson presented showed such rebound phases repeatedly appeared in several past bear markets. The key is what comes next. He said 7 of 9 cases recorded a new all-time high within a year. That suggests more cases led to a medium- to long-term trend reversal rather than a simple bounce.

The most recent similar case was late in the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin then posted a maximum drawdown of a little more than 70 percent. Glassnode data showed the point at which that correction narrowed to about a 35 percent decline from the peak two years earlier was in December 2023. Bitcoin later set a new record high in March 2024.

Markets have also kept up expectations of further gains this month. VanEck head of digital asset research Matthew Sigel (매슈 시걸) compared the relative value of Bitcoin and gold and presented $160,000 per coin as a conservative estimate. He cited the "Buffett indicator," the ratio of U.S. stock market capitalisation to gross domestic product named after Warren Buffett, and mentioned the possibility of a Bitcoin rebound, saying on X that "Bitcoin looks cheap."