An analysis said an early signal of a Bitcoin bull market has reappeared as the copper-gold ratio breaks above its 200-day moving average.

CoinDesk, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Tuesday that the breakout was the first meaningful signal since September 2020, and in the past has coincided with the beginning of Bitcoin upswings.

The copper-gold ratio now stands at 0.00142. Copper trades around $6.65 per pound and gold around $4,700 an ounce. The ratio is calculated by dividing the copper price by the gold price and is used as an indicator of the relative strength of cyclical assets and safe havens. The report noted that when the ratio surged in 2013, 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin also rose sharply.

Markets are focusing on the possibility that the move, while not yet a full co-move phase, could be an early stage of a trend reversal. The correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the copper-gold ratio is now -0.11. That reading has rebounded sharply from -1.00. The two assets have not yet formed a clear positive correlation, but the shift can be seen as the start of a strengthening relationship.

In past periods of strong Bitcoin gains, the correlation coefficient moved close to 1.0 or above. The remaining negative reading reflects the impact of the earlier divergence phase. At that time, as the copper-gold ratio fell, Bitcoin slid faster than copper. The explanation was that when the ratio later recovered, the two moves repeatedly converged again as market conditions improved.

The key is the time lag. The indicator has also tended to move weeks to months ahead of Bitcoin in the past. If the rise holds, it suggests the Bitcoin market may still be in an early phase. Market participants are watching whether a sequence could be repeated in which a shift in the macro environment appears first and risk appetite then spreads to digital assets.

The media outlet said the copper-gold ratio is seen as one of the main indicators of economic momentum and investor risk appetite. Copper tends to gain in expansions as it is closely tied to industrial demand, while gold stands out more when demand for defensive assets is strong. As a result, a rising ratio signals the macro environment is tilting toward greater risk appetite, it said.