Bitcoin funding rates have turned positive, reviving short-term bullish bets.

On May 12 (all times local), blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that bitcoin has held near $80,000 for more than a week and that annualised funding rates for perpetual futures entered a neutral-to-bullish range for the first time in about a month.

Annualised funding rates for bitcoin perpetual futures at one point rose to 6 percent on the day, entering a neutral-to-bullish range for the first time in about a month. Until recently, they had mostly stayed in negative territory. That suggests expectations for gains have revived, but traders are still maintaining a cautious stance.

In the spot market, flows in U.S.-listed bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were cited as a burden. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows on May 8 and 9. The market views spot ETF flows as a key indicator of institutional demand, and caution grew as the outflows coincided with times when bitcoin repeatedly failed to break above $82,000.

Derivatives markets also remain conservative. The 30-day delta skew for bitcoin options was 10 percent on May 12, unchanged from the previous week. That means put options traded at higher premiums than call options, showing whale investors and market makers are not comfortable with exposure to downside risk.

Mining indicators showed a different trend. Bitcoin hashrate fell to an eight-week low on April 26 but has shown a recovery in May. Network computing power rose 5 percent in two weeks to 970 exahashes per second (EH/s). It remains below the peak of 1,150 EH/s, but concerns that some mining companies’ shift to artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure would lead to an exodus from the network have eased.

The shift toward AI was also cited as another variable for the market. Iren announced a $34 billion contract with Nvidia on May 9, and Core Scientific also laid out plans to expand its Muskogee campus in Oklahoma. Still, the rebound in hashrate showed the mining industry has not completely left the bitcoin network. The market also said concerns were excessive that miners would abandon the network as they move into AI businesses.

The macro environment remains a source of uncertainty. Brent crude prices topped $105 a barrel on May 12. That reflected the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the fallout from the Iran war. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran’s recent demands were “totally unacceptable,” and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the conflict would not end until enriched uranium stockpiles are removed. Such geopolitical tensions could shake investor sentiment across risk assets.

Corporate bitcoin purchases provided support. Strategy paused bitcoin purchases for a week, but later said it bought $43 million worth of bitcoin again. It raised the funds through sales of its own shares. Demand tied to corporate treasury strategy stands in contrast with weak spot ETF flows.

Ultimately, the market view is that whether bitcoin can challenge $85,000 depends on a recovery in spot inflows. Futures funding rates have rebounded, but the options market is still defensive and spot ETFs have recently posted net outflows. If new funds return to spot ETFs this week, bitcoin could gain a catalyst for additional gains.