An analysis has found that bitcoin’s losses in the current bear market are more limited than in the past.

On May 12, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that inflows into spot exchange-traded funds and continued corporate bitcoin buying are producing a different pattern from the sharp collapses seen previously.

Bitcoin is now down 36 percent from its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025. Pierre Rochard (피에르 로샤드), chief executive of bitcoin financial product issuer The Bitcoin Bond Company, viewed this correction as different from past bear markets.

Past declines were much larger. In the 2013 to 2015 cycle, bitcoin fell about 85 percent, and in the 2017 to 2018 and 2021 to 2022 cycles, it fell about 77 percent before forming bottoms. In the current cycle, it has dropped about 52 percent, falling from around $126,000 to about $60,000.

Rochard explained that spot bitcoin ETFs have become a new source of demand over the past 2 years. Since their launch, spot bitcoin ETFs have recorded cumulative net inflows of more than $59 billion, with an additional $4.5 billion flowing in since March. He pointed to this ETF investor demand as a structure that did not exist in the 2018 or 2022 bear markets.

Corporate bitcoin purchases were also cited in the same context. Strategy increased its holdings to 818,869 bitcoin from 640,031 bitcoin in October 2025. The additional purchases total about 179,000 bitcoin. The average purchase price was estimated at about $75,543. It said steady buying as part of corporate treasury strategies is absorbing selling pressure in the market.

Market participants also see the current phase as not the same as in 2022. MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe (미하엘 반 더 포페) said the current market environment no longer resembles the 2022 cycle. He cited Nasdaq hitting a new high of 29,372, an upcoming vote on the CLARITY bill, discussions of a strategic bitcoin reserve, and the appointment of a new chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve as differentiating factors in this cycle.

On-chain indicators have also detected a shift in sentiment. Analyst MorenoDV (모레노DV) said bitcoin showed an "early bull market" signal for the first time since March 2023 on CryptoQuant’s bull-bear market cycle indicator. The indicator tracks whether the market is moving into a bull phase based on price momentum and moving averages. He added that stronger price action is needed for the signal to be confirmed.

Retail investor participation has also partly recovered. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr (악셀 아들러 주니어) reported that after tracking the 30-day change in trading volume for wallets sized $0 to $10,000, the indicator fell to minus 8.2 percent on April 5 before returning to positive later that month. The figure rose to 6.31 percent on May 6 and held at 4.38 percent on May 12, when bitcoin traded at $80,625.

Transfers by small investors also rose slightly from $336 million in mid-April to $351 million. Adler Jr said the activity still falls short of February levels, when transaction volumes ranged from $365 million to $375 million.

Against this backdrop, the market is focusing more on who is absorbing selling pressure than on the size of bitcoin’s decline itself. Whether ETF inflows and corporate purchases continue, and whether the recovery in retail participation broadens, remain variables that could determine the next direction of this cycle.

The fourth bitcoin bear market has materially decoupled from past cycles, for now. This strength is likely a combination of a muted bull market on the frontend, ETF inflows, and bitcoin treasury companies accumulating. pic.twitter.com/Npd1xss242