Bitcoin (BTC) has risen about 40 percent from its February low, but a whale investor is keeping a short position of 1,000 BTC, drawing market attention.

Cointelegraph reported on May 12 that the wallet known as "pension-usdt.eth" holds a Bitcoin short worth about $81.06 million with 3x cross leverage. The position was opened at $67,990 per bitcoin.

As Bitcoin rose to $81,000 to $82,000, the current unrealised loss is about $13 million. The wallet also holds a 20,000 ETH short worth about $46.1 million, taking total downside bets above $127 million. It has secured more than $125,000 in funding fee income, but that is limited compared with the unrealised loss.

The market focus stems from the whale wallet's past performance. Lookonchain said in April that the wallet recorded 20 straight wins and a win rate of more than 85 percent. Even so, the whale said on social media it was still holding the short position and that the trade was valid.

The bet aligns with a view that Bitcoin has entered a strong resistance zone. The price level now in focus is about $82,430. That area overlaps with the 200-day simple moving average and the upper boundary of a rising wedge pattern. Observers say if the rising wedge pattern ends to the downside, Bitcoin could slide to about $71,500. In that case, the unrealised loss on the whale's 1,000 BTC short would shrink to about $3.5 million.

Bearish views also raise the possibility of further declines. Crypto Kid said an average 68 percent drop occurred over four-year cycles in two similar retests in the past. If a similar pattern repeats from the current price, Bitcoin could fall below $30,000, and the whale's Bitcoin short would enter a profit zone of about $38 million, it forecast.

Bullish investors, by contrast, say this market differs from past bear markets. Analyst CRG said that during the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin did not post a daily close above the Ichimoku cloud, but since May 2026 it has been trading steadily above the cloud. CRG described this as a signal of the start of a new bull market.

Institutional demand is also cited as support for bullish views. Pierre Rochard (피에르 로샤르), CEO of The Bitcoin Bond Company, argued that the current bearish phase has decoupled from past cycles. He cited inflows into spot ETFs and continued accumulation by companies holding Bitcoin as drivers for the bullish backdrop.

Prediction market Kalshi puts the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2026 at 50 percent. The whale's roughly $81 million Bitcoin short would be fully liquidated if Bitcoin reaches $100,810. Whether a short-term correction emerges or gains driven by institutional inflows continue has become a key point for the market to watch.