[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] A sports betting exchange-traded fund (ETF) called BETZ, which has shown high correlation with bitcoin (BTC), is drawing attention as a new secondary market indicator.

On May 12 (local time), blockchain media outlet CoinDesk reported that the Roundhill Sports Betting and iGaming ETF (BETZ), listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), has shown a similar cycle to bitcoin since 2020. In some phases, it has also appeared to form highs and lows ahead of bitcoin.

Markets are widely aware of the impact of BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, on bitcoin prices. This time, it was highlighted that an ETF with a much smaller pool of money could also provide a separate signal in terms of price movements. BETZ was launched in June 2020, with cumulative net inflows of about $98 million and assets under management of about $50 million as of May 12, making it small compared with IBIT.

Even so, the price similarity with bitcoin was clear. TradingView data put the 90-day correlation coefficient at 0.73 and the 365-day coefficient at 0.91, indicating the two assets' moves are statistically linked by more than 80 percent. BETZ in particular tended to mark major highs and lows several weeks ahead of bitcoin. In 2021, BETZ posted a high first in September, and bitcoin peaked 2 months later in November. In 2022, BETZ formed a low in September and bitcoin bottomed 3 months later, repeating a similar pattern.

Still, the correlation does not necessarily mean a causal relationship. The outlet drew a line, saying it is hard to view BETZ as independently predicting bitcoin's direction. Instead, the trend is seen as strengthening the view raised by Ray Dalio and others that bitcoin moves more like a risk asset that is sensitive to the macro environment than a traditional safe haven. The analysis said BETZ has greater meaning as a secondary indicator showing investor sentiment and liquidity than as a forecasting tool.

Some points to watch also emerged in recent moves. BETZ briefly appeared to decouple from a rising bitcoin over several days. The outlet described this as "an early signal" but added there is no guarantee past correlations will always hold.

That means market participants should watch not only fund flows into spot bitcoin ETFs, but also movements in surrounding assets that reflect risk appetite. In particular, whether BETZ will again signal a turn ahead of bitcoin, or whether the existing correlation will weaken and amount to temporary noise, is emerging as a short-term point to watch.