Bitcoin (BTC) increased volatility around $81,000 due to the fallout from a U.S. inflation report.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on May 12 local time that the U.S. April consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.8 percent from a year earlier, the highest since 2023.

Early in the session, bitcoin traded up and down near $81,000 as pressure grew across risk assets. The market focused on the possibility that rising inflation could become entrenched again. Cryptocurrencies typically react sensitively to the prospect of rate hikes or signals of higher rates for longer.

Energy prices had a large impact on the CPI increase. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the energy index rose 3.8 percent in April, accounting for more than 40 percent of the overall rise in prices. The 12-month increase in energy prices was about 18 percent. The result reflected the impact of restricted crude oil supply due to tensions between the United States and Iran. By contrast, indexes for new vehicles, telecommunications and healthcare fell in April, it showed.

The outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy also became unsettled again. The market analysis account The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the likelihood was increasing that the Fed could pivot toward raising rates. It said inflation at levels seen after the COVID-19 pandemic was reappearing and that surging oil prices were fueling it. CME Group FedWatch-based rate expectations shifted toward keeping rates at current levels through 2026 and the following year, and as expectations for increased liquidity weaken, downward pressure could grow on cryptocurrencies and risk assets.

In the short term, the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) was cited as a key support level. Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe focused on $78,800, and said a break below that zone could weaken the short-term upward trend.

On the upside, the 200-day moving average was cited as resistance. Material Indicators analyzed the area around $82,600 as a near-term burden for the bullish camp. Bulls are attempting to turn $80,700 into a pivot between support and resistance, and are showing moves aimed at establishing a basis for further gains by breaking above the 200-day line.

Ultimately, the market's focus is splitting in two. One is whether oil-driven inflation is a temporary factor, and the other is how much the Fed will delay expectations for rate cuts. In this environment, bitcoin's near-term path is expected to hinge on holding support at $78,800, settling above $80,700 and breaking through $82,600.