[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin has recovered $80,000, but the market is still not treating it as a full-fledged upside breakout.

On May 12 (local time), blockchain media outlet Coindesk reported that bitcoin is moving around the $80,000 level after reversing last Friday’s declines. Recent gains are seen as more of a test of a key resistance level than a trend reversal, the report said.

Internal market indicators are sending mixed signals. Spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand is holding up and exchange balances remain low, making the structural downside firmer than before. But much of the recent buying is seen as being amplified by leveraged futures trading rather than spot demand, which is cited as a burden. In such a setup, a rebound could wobble again if macro indicators fall short of expectations.

Market research firm Nflux viewed ETF demand and low exchange balances as helping bitcoin form a structural bottom. Glassnode also said in a recent weekly report that buying has been turning more aggressive in both the spot and perpetual futures markets.

A rebound has emerged, but the stability of the upward move is still lacking. Momentum has slowed and leverage has risen, while funding flows still show demand for short positions. That suggests market participants are building hedge positions alongside preparing for upside, rather than fully chasing the rally.

Price action also showed the market’s caution. Bitcoin has risen about 13 percent over the past 30 days and is holding the $80,000 level, but it slid from about $82,000 to $79,743 last Friday after stronger-than-expected employment data. That was driven by interpretations that strong jobs data could lower the likelihood of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts. Bitcoin recovered the losses over the weekend.

Nflux said resistance in this zone is not merely a number on a chart. "If the headline indicators had beaten expectations, $80,700 should have been cleared cleanly, but spot slipped first," it said. "That level is not just a chart marker but a real supply zone," it added.

A view that market confidence has not fully returned also emerged from comparisons with other assets. Nflux said the recovery in the secondhand luxury watch market could be a leading signal of risk appetite among wealthy investors. Morgan Stanley data showed secondhand watch prices rose 1.9 percent in the first quarter, and 25 of 35 tracked brands posted gains. Value retention rates and inventory turnover were also analysed as having improved.

But that does not mean crypto funds moved into the watch market. It means that as some funds show signs of returning to risk assets that can reprice after a long correction based on price, scarcity and demand, bitcoin still has not clearly broken through key resistance. Even if some risk appetite is reviving, it is also possible to interpret that bitcoin has yet to establish itself as the asset that most clearly reflects that confidence.

Glassnode transaction data also show a lack of conviction. On a cumulative volume delta (CVD) basis, the spot market reading rose 46.4 percent to $62.0 million from $42.4 million. That signals buyers are entering aggressively at market prices rather than waiting for lower levels. Perpetual futures CVD jumped to $410.3 million from $110.0 million. But a futures-led rally can reverse quickly if sentiment shifts.

The market is ultimately testing both whether a stronger base than before has formed near $80,000 and whether there is enough momentum above it to drive further gains. Glassnode indicators show stronger buying pressure and ETF demand is supporting the downside, but some see the next leg higher as depending on whether inflation data can give traders enough conviction to reduce hedging demand and shift into chase buying, rather than on crypto-internal expectations.