A forecast emerged that bitcoin prices could reclaim $126,000.

On May 12, blockchain media outlet CoinDesk reported that Arthur Hayes (아서 헤이즈), chief investment officer at Maelstrom, said bitcoin bottomed at $60,000 this year and that it was inevitable it would again surpass $126,000, the level seen in October 2025.

Hayes said the uptrend could become even steeper if bitcoin rises above $90,000. In a Substack post, he said the bull market has already returned and he would not wait for additional confirmation. Bitcoin briefly rose above $82,000 on May 13 and recently traded around $80,600. A rise from current levels to $126,000 would represent a gain of about 55 percent.

He pointed to $90,000 as a key turning point. He said that once the price breaks above it, sellers of call options with higher strike prices would have to buy bitcoin to cover their positions, which could further amplify the rise.

Hayes cited 2 drivers of the rally. The first is increased investment in AI equipment. He said AI investment, which had depended on the cash flows of large software companies, has now moved into a phase that requires credit creation by commercial banks and central banks. He said the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China are easing financial conditions, and Chinese banks are shifting funds from real estate to the technology sector.

The second is the war between the United States and Iran. He said the war has led countries to rebuild their own infrastructure and stockpile raw materials rather than save in dollar assets. He argued that both the war and AI equipment investment are stoking inflation, and that the willingness to expand the money supply to support this is creating an environment favourable for bitcoin.

Hayes also cited bitcoin's performance versus the Nasdaq 100, the IGV software ETF and gold since the outbreak of the war on Feb. 28. He said the market has already begun to price in the direction of these changes.

He also disclosed Maelstrom's altcoin positions. Maelstrom holds large stakes in Hyperliquid's HYPE and Zcash's ZEC, and he named Near as the next candidate. He said Near is a case that combines a privacy narrative, an intent-based structure and positive cash flow.

He also set out conditions that could end the rally. One would be a large AI initial public offering or merger and acquisition in the United States or China that the market cannot absorb. He also cited as a risk factor a situation in which a Democratic candidate in the 2028 U.S. presidential election runs on an anti-AI pledge and that message gains traction, prompting lenders to reconsider funding. He said the November 2026 midterm elections could be a smaller obstacle that may appear before then.