Bitcoin is drawing market attention on expectations of a “golden cross” signal in key on-chain indicators for the first time since 2023, raising the prospect of further gains.

Cointelegraph reported on May 11 that bitcoin’s MVRV ratio, an indicator used to judge whether an asset is overvalued, is nearing a bullish crossover with the 200-day exponential moving average.

CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that a golden cross between bitcoin’s MVRV ratio and the 200-day exponential moving average is imminent. There have been past cases in which this signal appeared ahead of large gains.

The indicator last showed a bullish crossover just after the 2022 cycle low, after which bitcoin rose about 90 percent from $16,300 in the first quarter of 2023 to $31,000. After another crossover in September 2023, it climbed about 400 percent to an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025.

CW8900 also pointed in earlier analysis to a golden cross in late April, when the 30-day simple moving average of bitcoin’s MVRV ratio rose above the 90-day simple moving average. That was seen as a sign that bullish momentum is returning in the indicators.

From a short-term supply-and-demand perspective, bitcoin’s price rebound also led new buyers back into profit territory. As bitcoin recently rose to $83,000, the cost basis threshold for short-term holders also moved higher. Short-term holders generally refer to investors who have held bitcoin for fewer than 155 days.

Glassnode’s short-term holder risk zones show the “heated” band currently at $92,000 and the “overheated” band at $104,000. Profit-taking is emerging at current levels, but the zone suggests bitcoin could rise further in the short term.

A key issue is whether bitcoin can break above $82,500, its 200-day moving average. Bitcoin is now retesting that area. If it clears the line, a months-long downtrend could end, but there is also a view that a failure at resistance could trigger fresh selling pressure toward $50,000.

Technical indicators are also sending similar signals. Analyst Shiv Spain viewed bitcoin’s break above a months-long downtrend line on the weekly chart as a sign of a structural change. He said a major bitcoin bull market is approaching and a bullish MACD reversal is forming.

Another analyst, Mustache, pointed to a rebound in bitcoin’s market capitalisation and the relative strength index, or RSI, from support levels maintained for years on a monthly basis. He said that, as in 2022, bitcoin has called a bottom again in this cycle.

Some in the market are forecasting bitcoin could rise to $180,000 to $250,000 within the year, citing institutional accumulation and improving technical indicators. In the short term, a break above the 200-day moving average and whether bitcoin reaches the top of the short-term holder cost basis zone remain key variables in determining whether the uptrend continues.

A golden cross between the $BTC MVRV Ratio and the 200D EMA line is imminent. This signal is a representative trend reversal signal and is a bullish indicator. A golden cross is about to occur again following the dead cross last August. Another bullish signal for $BTC is… pic.twitter.com/13z6HvNiGA