Bitcoin is trading above $81,000, but the cryptocurrency market is showing a pattern of being shaken more by Middle East geopolitical risk than by fundamentals.

On May 11, blockchain outlet The Block Crypto reported that market caution picked up again after Iran rejected a peace plan under the Trump administration and Brent crude exceeded $104 a barrel early in the session.

Bitcoin at one point rose above $82,000 during the session and kept a monthly gain of more than 11 percent. But the market was rattled more by external factors than by its own catalysts as uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and concerns over an Iran ceasefire persisted.

Bitcoin's strength last week was driven by a combination of spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows, expectations of buying by companies pursuing digital asset treasury strategies, and hopes for a compromise on the CLARITY bill. But the rise stalled during the week. Laser Digital pointed to profit-taking by investors and said follow-on selling emerged as Strategy's large-scale buying did not come through as strongly as expected.

Signals that the pace of corporate bitcoin buying could slow or be temporarily suspended also weighed on the market. CryptoQuant also described last week's move as a bear-market bounce and warned that profit-taking could deepen.

Selling pressure was more concentrated in ether. Laser Digital said ether underperformed bitcoin after a whale investor holding about $1 billion each in bitcoin and ether sold ether heavily last week. The remaining ether was moved to exchanges over the weekend, but there was no immediate additional plunge.

Market participants are again pricing in interpretations of macro factors that were on hold over the weekend. Coin Bureau founder Nick Puckrin said, "It felt like the entire market froze over the weekend," adding that extreme remarks about the possibility of a U.S.-Iran deal left investors unable to find direction.

Puckrin said bitcoin and oil futures were the most immediate indicators of geopolitical risk over the weekend. He said bitcoin holding above $80,000 and Brent crude hovering around $100 showed the market placed more weight on the possibility of a diplomatic solution than on escalation, but that calculation changed after Brent crude broke above $104 a barrel on the morning of May 11.

The macro environment itself still has supportive factors. Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, assessed that nonfarm jobs rose by 115,000 in April, nearly double market expectations, and the unemployment rate held steady, easing short-term stagflation concerns. Scheduled this week are the consumer price index (CPI) on May 12; the producer price index (PPI) and the monthly report from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on May 13; and retail sales and CLARITY-related events on May 14.

A U.S.-China summit is also a variable. QCP Capital said U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet in Beijing on May 13 and 14 to discuss trade, national security, rare earth supply chains and the Middle East conflict. A U.S. trade court's ruling last week that Trump's 10 percent global tariff was illegal has also added weight to the talks.

Strategy could also become an additional demand factor. Strategy's preferred share product STRC began trading near par value on May 8, and Laser Digital said the door is open to further bitcoin purchases funded by capital raising this week. Michael Saylor said Strategy would buy 10 to 20 bitcoins for every bitcoin it sells.

Even so, short-term direction is still being driven by the news flow. Puckrin said, "While negotiations dominate the news flow, the market is responding more to these sharp changes than to fundamentals," adding, "With a lack of conviction, positions flip quickly on a single headline, making it a very fragile trading environment." QCP Capital described the current phase as a "crossroads for crypto" and pointed to $84,000 as bitcoin's next key resistance level.

As a result, the bitcoin market has entered a period of greater sensitivity to external factors such as Middle East developments, a surge in oil prices and U.S. inflation data, while maintaining internal upside drivers such as ETF inflows and expectations of corporate buying. In the near term, the key gauges for a recovery in investor sentiment are whether bitcoin can defend the $80,000 level and whether it can break through resistance at $84,000.