Ethereum (ETH) may post quarterly declines for three consecutive quarters for the first time.

On May 11, blockchain media outlet Cryptopolitan reported that the market is watching whether Ethereum’s weakness will extend through the second quarter, following declines in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.

Based on CoinGlass data, Ethereum posted a negative return in the fourth quarter of 2025 and showed the same trend in the first quarter of 2026. In the second quarter of 2026 now under way, cumulative returns are more than 11 percent positive. That means a first-ever three straight quarterly declines is not yet certain.

A key market burden is weakness versus Bitcoin (BTC). Ethereum has fallen more than 35 percent against Bitcoin over the past year, and is down more than 21 percent since the start of the year. Over the same period, Bitcoin fell 6 percent, and its market dominance stayed above 60 percent.

Chart action is also cited as a risk factor. Ethereum has recently failed at overhead resistance and slipped below key support. Some analysts warn that if the weakness continues, it could fall a further 40 percent against Bitcoin.

Exchange data are also adding to concerns about selling pressure. CryptoQuant data show Binance’s Ethereum holdings rose to 3.62 million ETH, about 24.6 percent of total Ethereum held on exchanges. The market sees the increase as a possible sign investors are moving coins ahead of selling. Ethereum open interest (OI) also edged up over the past 24 hours.

Short-term price action is mixed. Ethereum fell about 2 percent over the past 7 days, but rose 3.3 percent over the past 30 days to trade around $2,337. Bitcoin rose more than 2 percent over the past 7 days and nearly 12 percent over the past 30 days to trade around $81,920.

The broader market is not uniformly leaning bearish. Some participants say recent fears around selling and unstaking by the Ethereum Foundation (EF) are excessive. The EF has regularly sold ETH to fund operating costs, grants, salaries and development funding, and an unstaking worth about $49.6 million also stoked additional selling concerns online. Still, some point out that these moves alone cannot be taken as proof that large-scale selling is imminent.

Institutional accumulation is also continuing. BitMine Immersion Technologies bought an additional 26,659 ETH last week, lifting its total holdings to more than 5.2 million ETH. That is about 4.3 percent of Ethereum’s circulating supply. The company is the world’s largest corporate holder of Ethereum treasury assets and is staking more than 90 percent of its holdings via the MAVAN staking platform.

Tom Lee (톰 리) said the slower pace of purchases reflected a deliberate adjustment after buying more than 100,000 ETH per week for several weeks. He said that if that pace had been maintained, BitMine would have approached holding 5 percent of total supply by mid-July. He also cited Wall Street’s expanding tokenisation and agentic AI as key future drivers for Ethereum.

A price threshold was also presented. Tom Lee said that if Ethereum closes above $2,100 at the end of May 2026, it would mark three consecutive months of gains, which could be a signal confirming the arrival of a “crypto spring”.

Fund flows have not fully turned lower. Crypto ETFs saw net inflows of about $857.9 million last week. Bitcoin-linked ETFs drew in more than $622.0 million, and Ethereum ETFs saw inflows of more than $70 million. Even as Ethereum remains weak in the short term, whether institutional demand holds is emerging as a factor that could shape the second-quarter trend.