[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] Bitcoin is losing upward momentum around $82,000.

A chart rebound signal is appearing, but weakened U.S. buying since October last year is blocking a breakout, blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported on Sunday local time.

The key resistance line is $82,020, the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). Bitcoin tried twice over the weekend to reclaim that zone but fell back each time. The attempt on May 6 was quickly reversed, and the same pattern appeared in another try on May 10. The narrowing gap between the 50-day and 100-day lines has raised the chance of a bullish cross, but the rebound signal remains conditional unless the 200-day line shifts from resistance to support.

Technical indicators alone still leave room for a rebound. On the daily chart, the 20-day line at $78,805, the 50-day line at $76,016 and the 100-day line at $76,538 are clustered closely. In particular, a bullish cross between the 50-day and 100-day lines was presented as something that could be completed within days. In late April, a cross appeared after the 20-day and 100-day lines tightened, and Bitcoin then rose 10.72% over several weeks.

The problem is supply and demand. In the derivatives market, the funding rate has mostly stayed negative for about the past 90 days. As of May 10, the funding rate was -0.0031 percent. Generally, a funding rate below -0.01 percent is interpreted as a state in which bearish positions are strongly dominant. If short positions crowd to one side, downside pressure can ease and the chance of a short squeeze can increase, but for now clear signs of real demand to drive a rebound have not been confirmed.

Spot market indicators point in the same direction. The Coinbase premium index is an indicator that shows the price gap between Coinbase and other major exchanges. A positive reading means U.S.-based buying is paying higher prices, while a negative reading means selling dominance is stronger on the U.S. side.

The index has stayed mostly in negative territory since late October 2025. It briefly turned positive on May 5, but returned to negative on May 6, and Bitcoin's attempt that day to regain the 200-day line also failed. The fact that spot weakness appeared before changes in the derivatives market was also cited as a burden.

Trading volume is also weak. Since April 13, Bitcoin has risen gradually, but daily trading volume has continued to decline. With market participation weakening, Bitcoin appears to have been blocked by sell orders each time it tried to retake the 200-day line. Whether U.S. institutional demand returns can be checked through a shift of the Coinbase premium to positive territory.

On the upside, breaking above $82,020 was presented as the first condition. If it clears that zone, the next resistance line is $83,608, the Fibonacci 0.236 level. After that, $86,223 and $88,336 were mentioned in turn, and if Bitcoin breaks above $88,336, $90,450, the 0.618 level, was presented as the next major resistance line.

On the downside, support is at $79,381. If that level breaks, $74,903 was presented as the next support zone, and if it slips there as well, a drop test to $70,493 could open up.

An analysis is emerging that the key to a Bitcoin rebound hinges less on technical signals themselves than on whether U.S. buying returns. Even if it moves above $82,020, there remains a possibility that the failures of May 6 and May 10 will be repeated if U.S. spot demand does not follow.