Bitcoin has again failed to break above its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), prompting warnings it could slide to around $60,000.

Cointelegraph reported on May 11 that the market is focusing on the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) again acting as a key resistance level. That zone is currently around $82,580. Bitcoin has failed to clear the line several times since November 2025, and each time it was followed by steep corrections of 25 percent and 36 percent. The average decline over the last two instances was about 30 percent.

Market analyst Brett argued that if Bitcoin breaks above the 200-day EMA, it could mark the end of the bear market. But he said if the current pattern of being pushed back continues, the odds of further short-term declines are higher. If the average pullback seen after such rejections repeats, Bitcoin could drop to $56,600 from current levels, according to the calculation.

That price range also overlaps with a long-term support zone. A long-term Bitcoin support model presented by analyst PlanC put the upper support line around $57,110 and the lower support line near $46,760. The model averages Bitcoin's long-term simple moving average with 1x, 2x, 3x and 4x EMAs, then applies a 10 percent band.

Bearish signals also remain on the chart. An unresolved bearish flag pattern suggests Bitcoin could fall below $60,000 in the coming weeks. Despite the recent rebound, the market is watching both a downside scenario and whether support levels hold, as a break above short-term resistance has not been confirmed.

Signals supporting expectations of a medium- to long-term rebound also exist. Bitcoin rose more than 38 percent after rebounding from the 200-week SMA around $61,000. That area is also close to major cycle bottoms during the sharp declines in 2018 and March 2020. At the time, Bitcoin fell to around the 200-week moving average and then continued to recover toward the 50-week moving average.

If the same pattern repeats, the next upside target could be around $94,700, about 17 percent above the current price. In that case, more weight could be added to the 'end of the bear market' scenario mentioned by Brett.

On the supply-demand side, continued strong accumulation by whale investors is also cited as a variable. Recent whale accumulation was presented as about 500 percent of newly issued Bitcoin supply. Short-term charts point to bearish pressure, but with long-term support and large-scale accumulation appearing at the same time, the market has entered a phase of watching both a break above resistance at $82,580 and whether the $60,000 level holds.

Bitcoin is approaching the 200d MA. Close above and that could be the end of the bears. Rejection, and they fight on. pic.twitter.com/70thk0yrUD