Ethereum (ETH) has fallen more than 35 percent against bitcoin (BTC) over the past year, while the ETH/BTC ratio is showing a path similar to periods before past sharp drops, raising the possibility of further weakness.

Cointelegraph reported on May 10 that ETH/BTC remains below a long-term downtrend line that has blocked every rebound attempt since 2022.

The market is focusing on the technical setup. ETH/BTC retested the same trend line in August 2025 but met resistance. It then slipped near a resistance zone where the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level overlaps with the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA). The pair fell again below the 20-month EMA near 0.034 BTC, showing a sell-dominant trend.

If this structure persists, the next major downside target in 2026 is put at around 0.0176 BTC. That is about 40 percent below the current level and overlaps with the 2020 cycle low zone. Caution is rising because ETH/BTC showed a similar structure before its roughly 70 percent plunge in 2024 to 2025.

Ethereum also faces headwinds in supply and demand. Based on CryptoQuant data, Binance’s ETH holdings rose to 3.62 million ETH as of May, accounting for about 24.6 percent of total ether held on exchanges. Rising exchange balances are typically read as a sign that more tokens are available to sell. If demand does not absorb them, prices could come under pressure.

By contrast, bitcoin balances on Binance were seen declining. This often appears when funds move off exchanges and take on a stronger long-term holding character. The market is therefore seeing relatively greater supply pressure in ethereum, while exchange liquidity in bitcoin is moving toward being tighter.

It is also seen as more than a price issue. The outlet said ethereum’s weakness is intertwined with broader fundamental changes. It said ethereum has lagged bitcoin in recent years, citing as one factor the fading strength of the "ultrasound money" narrative. Bitcoin, by contrast, is maintaining relative strength on the back of accumulation by companies such as Strategy and broader inclusion in Wall Street portfolios.

With ETH/BTC trapped below a long-term trend line and Binance’s ether balances also rising, the market appears to put more weight on the risk of further declines than on the durability of any rebound. The key points to watch are whether ETH/BTC can recover support around 0.034 BTC and whether the rise in exchange ETH supply eases.