[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Bitcoin (BTC) could fall as far as $70,000 ahead of the release of the U.S. April consumer price index (CPI), a forecast says.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on May 10 that the chance of a short-term pullback is growing as worries about renewed inflation coincide with weakening institutional buying.

A key variable is the U.S. April CPI due on May 12. The Cleveland Federal Reserve's latest inflation estimate sees April CPI at 3.56 percent year on year, higher than 3.3 percent in March. Monthly CPI is expected to slow to 0.45 percent from 0.9 percent in March, but if the annual inflation rate rises again it could leave the U.S. Federal Reserve with less room to cut interest rates. That would be a burden for risk assets.

Bitcoin has recently avoided a sharp drop even with elevated CPI readings. After March CPI rose to 3.3 percent from 2.4 percent in February, bitcoin prices climbed more than 15 percent. At the time, institutional investors absorbed more than 500 percent of newly mined bitcoin supply, with Strategy cited as taking a sizable share.

This time, support appears weaker. Strategy has paused bitcoin purchases. The company's preferred shares, STRC, are also trading below their $100 par value. If STRC stays below par, the efficiency of issuing new shares would decline, and the capacity to raise funds for additional bitcoin purchases could be limited.

Markets have also raised the possibility of moves to reduce risk exposure ahead of the CPI release. Analyst Killa said in a May 11 post that big players could turn to de-risking around the inflation data. Killa noted that similar caution was repeated during the CPI release period in 2025. Killa added: "$78,600 on the weekly open must hold," and "if this level breaks, the next downside target is $74,000 to $75,000."

Technical price action was also cited as a warning sign. An analysis said a classic rising wedge is forming on the daily bitcoin chart. A rising wedge is typically classified as a bearish reversal pattern. If price breaks below the lower trendline, additional declines could follow by the height of the pattern.

As of May 11, bitcoin is heading toward the apex area near $84,000 where the two trendlines meet. If it breaks down from that point, the measured downside target was put at around $70,000. If it breaks upward through the apex area, the downside scenario could be invalidated. The zone also overlaps with the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA). In that case, the next upside target was put at $90,000 to $95,000.

Bitcoin's direction this week is increasingly likely to be driven by inflation data, institutional flows and whether it breaks through technical resistance. With institutional buying that supported the earlier upswing weakening, volatility could be unavoidable if CPI again stokes concerns about tighter monetary conditions.