Ahead of the release of U.S. April nonfarm payrolls data, bitcoin and other risk assets could see higher volatility, a forecast said.

On May 8, CoinDesk said markets are paying more attention to whether wage growth is slowing than to the size of the jobs increase itself.

Economists expect April nonfarm payrolls to rise by 62,000, sharply down from 172,000 in March. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.3 percent. A jobs slowdown alone could support expectations the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged, which could be favourable for bitcoin and other risk assets. Markets currently reflect the possibility of rates staying on hold this year and rising next year.

But wages are a key variable. Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 3.8 percent from a year earlier, up from 3.5 percent previously. If wage pressure persists and oil prices stay high, global inflation concerns could grow. That could complicate the Fed’s policy path, the report said.

CoinDesk said the market reaction is likely to be driven more by wage growth than by the jobs figures. With some chance of a rate hike next year already reflected, risk assets would need wage data to come in weaker than expected to stage a clear rebound, it said.

A key support level for bitcoin was put at $75,000. Alex Kuptsikevich (알렉스 쿠프치케비치), FxPro's chief market analyst, said bitcoin has slipped back below $80,000 and continues to retreat near its 200-day moving average. The lower end of the rising channel is around $77,500, but a drop below the recent low of $75,000 would be needed to see it as a bigger breakdown in the trend, he said.

Supply-and-demand indicators have also weakened. CoinGlass charts show the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index switched from a premium to a discount this week. The uptrend also stalled as bitcoin tried to settle above $80,000. The outlet said that in past bull markets the index often stayed in positive territory, and that a recovery in the premium is needed for further gains.