A forecast said the cryptocurrency bear market could be considered over if bitcoin ends May above $76,000.

On May 7, blockchain media outlet CoinDesk reported that Tom Lee (톰 리), chairman of Bitmine and co-founder of Fundstrat, said at Consensus 2026 in Miami that a new upcycle is forming, citing bitcoin’s recent strength.

Lee highlighted bitcoin’s rebound after it slid from $126,000 in October last year to $60,000 in February this year. He pointed to monthly gains in March and April and said bitcoin is up about 5 percent in May, raising the likelihood of a third straight month of gains. "There has never been a bear market that ended with three straight monthly gains," he said. "If this month closes above $76,000, the bear market is clearly over."

CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index ended April at $76,300, and bitcoin is now trading below $80,000. Lee said market participants remain anchored to memories of the previous downturn and are underestimating the strength of the rebound. He also mentioned that veteran trader John Bollinger’s trend model has recently signalled a shift to an uptrend for bitcoin.

He also cited relative strength in major cryptocurrencies, including ether. Lee said that after U.S.-Iran tensions rose, cryptocurrencies showed a stronger trend than traditional markets, with ether leading gains. He also pointed to the fact that software stocks, for which Fundstrat recently raised its investment view, have historically shown a high correlation with bitcoin.

He identified tokenisation and artificial intelligence-based financial services as forces that will drive the next bull market. He argued that tokenisation, which moves all assets on-chain, will reshape the financial structure, and that AI agents will have no choice but to use blockchain networks and tokenised financial systems to transfer value autonomously. "AI agents need money to move value on their own, and for that they will increasingly rely on blockchain networks," Lee said.

He pointed to the spread of stablecoins as evidence that such change has already begun. Lee noted that stablecoin transaction volume has already surpassed the scale of Visa payments. He also cited a Grayscale report and forecast that the $300 trillion securities market will eventually move to blockchain infrastructure in the form of tokenised assets. "The network that accommodates a significant share of tokenisation activity will capture the economic value," he said.

He also analysed that the profit structure of the financial industry could change. Lee compared JPMorgan, which is expected to earn about $60 billion in revenue this year with a workforce of around 300,000, with firms such as Tether and Jane Street, which he said can generate a similar level of profit with far fewer people. He said digital-native companies that use blockchain as payment infrastructure can reduce many procedures and staffing structures in traditional finance. "Within 10 years, half of the world’s largest financial institutions will be digital natives," he said.

The remarks focused not only on a price outlook but also on what will create the next upside phase in the cryptocurrency market. With bitcoin’s closing level presented as a short-term pivot, tokenisation and AI-based finance are expected to be key points to watch in whether they translate into actual capital flows and network value.