A large bitcoin whale wallet withdrew about 2,500 bitcoin from the Binance exchange within an hour, turning market attention to the possibility of major accumulation. As exchange reserves have recently declined alongside technical bullish signals, the mood is also strengthening again around the view that bitcoin has formed a bottom.

On May 7 local time, a newly created bitcoin wallet, 'bc1qhx', moved bitcoin worth about $202 million in two transfers, blockchain outlet BeInCrypto reported. Based on on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain, the wallet received 2,250 bitcoin and 250 bitcoin, respectively, and small test transfers were also confirmed in the process.

The market atmosphere is to interpret the move as an accumulation signal by institutional investors or large asset holders rather than a simple transfer by an individual investor. That is because when large amounts of bitcoin move off exchanges, it can reduce short-term selling pressure. In particular, a shift to self-custody often suggests an intent to hold long term, and the market takes it as a positive signal.

The transaction also coincided with a trend of declining bitcoin holdings at centralised exchanges. The market sees that if spot ETF and institutional inflows continue while potential sellable supply on exchanges shrinks, price volatility could increase further. Bitcoin recently rebounded around $80,000, recovering part of its prior decline.

Technical indicators are also adding weight to bullish views. Tactica, a trading program run by Bollinger Bands creator John Bollinger, has recently issued a bullish reversal signal for bitcoin and reportedly built positions fully. Bollinger explained that his trend model had turned back to a positive signal in bitcoin.

Market participants are taking it as a meaningful change. Trader PinFreedom said it was notable from a contrarian perspective that the creator of Bollinger Bands directly took a bullish position in bitcoin.

On-chain data presented by quantitative analyst Frank also drew attention. He said it was the first time since November last year that the bitcoin short-term holder MVRV band had broken upward into the overheated zone. Frank added that the indicator tends to move with price action, so it does not by itself mean a market top.

Macro analyst Brett said a rare pattern was also confirmed in the weekly relative strength index (RSI). He said there have been only four instances in bitcoin's history where the RSI fell below 30 and then broke back above the 50 line, and in the past they all appeared after a market bottom had formed.

The market is still maintaining a cautious mood as well. Experts see it as likely that whether the current recovery turns into a real trend reversal will be confirmed in weekly closing action. If the RSI breakout holds, the reliability of the bullish signal could rise, but if the upward momentum breaks, the recent optimism could also weaken quickly, they said.

In particular, whether the outflow of bitcoin from exchanges continues is cited as a key variable. If additional outflows follow, the institutional accumulation scenario could gain weight, but if large amounts flow back into exchanges, the possibility of short-term profit-taking could also be raised. On-chain analysts said that as bitcoin rebounded into the mid-$80,000 range, existing bears are revising their outlooks, but several major resistance zones still remain overhead, and the upward move will not be smooth.