ARK Invest projected the total cryptocurrency market capitalisation could grow to $28 trillion by 2030.

Cryptopolitan, a blockchain media outlet, reported on May 5 that the scenario implies a nearly tenfold expansion from the current market size of more than $2.7 trillion.

Bitcoin is at the centre of the forecast. ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood (캐시 우드), expects bitcoin to grow about 63 percent a year on average over the next five years and further increase its market dominance. It assumed bitcoin becomes a corporate treasury reserve asset, institutional adoption expands and on-chain financial infrastructure matures.

Bitcoin is trading at around $81,000. Its market capitalisation is $1.62 trillion. It is still 35.6 percent below the all-time high of $126,198.07 recorded on Oct. 6, 2025.

ARK Invest also expects smart-contract networks to expand. It forecast their market capitalisation could rise 54 percent a year through 2030 to about $6 trillion. ARK Invest expects annualised revenue to increase to about $192 billion in the process, with the average fee rate at about 0.75 percent. It also pointed to a high likelihood that 2 to 3 layer-1 smart-contract platforms could take a larger share of the market.

Institutional inflows were presented as a basis for the outlook. Strategy, led by Michael Saylor (마이클 세일러), said on X, formerly Twitter, on May 5 that it holds 3.9 percent of the entire bitcoin network. Based on mark-to-market gains on bitcoin holdings secured so far this year, the amount is 63,410 bitcoin, worth about $5.1 billion. CoinMarketCap data show listed companies and institutions hold 1.27 million bitcoin, with more than 6 percent of the circulating supply tied up on corporate balance sheets.

Institutional holdings are also expanding in ethereum. BitMine Immersion Technologies, backed by ARK Invest, said on May 4 its ethereum holdings increased to about 5.18 million. Its cryptocurrency and cash holdings total about $13.1 billion. Tom Lee (톰 리), BitMine chairman, said with the announcement that "spring has come to the crypto market". He also said investor sentiment remains weak or bearish, but resembles past phases.

Lee said not only the possibility of passage of the U.S. CLARITY bill, but even a failure of the bill could signal a shift in market conditions. "The possibility of passage of the CLARITY bill, or even its failure, confirms that spring has come to the crypto market," he said. "Ethereum is receiving two tailwinds at once: Wall Street's blockchain tokenisation and demand for a public and neutral blockchain for agentic artificial intelligence (AI) systems," he said.

ARK Invest said conditions would be needed for its forecast to be realised. The report said major markets must secure regulatory clarity, institutional inflows must continue, and decentralised finance (DeFi) protocols must keep growing. As a result, the next point to watch will be whether companies accelerate bitcoin treasury purchases at current price levels, or whether buying slows while bitcoin moves sideways below last October's peak.