[DigitalToday reporter Yeseul Kim] Solana ended April up 1.18 percent even as it faced net inflow pressure to exchanges throughout the month.

BeInCrypto, a blockchain outlet, reported on April 28 that key variables for SOL in May are whether it holds support at $78 and the flow of funds into spot Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Solana is currently trading around $84.20. A head-and-shoulders pattern has formed on the three-day chart. If the neckline breaks, it could fall about 19 percent. Still, sell-side volume during the downtrend since mid-March has instead declined. March's sharp drop came with heavier selling volume than April, so while the pattern points lower, the momentum to complete it has weakened, according to the report.

May seasonality is negative on a long-term basis. Solana's average May return is minus 9.96 percent and the median is minus 12.9 percent. It fell 46.3 percent in May 2022, and also dropped 24.2 percent and 17.2 percent in 2021 and 2020, respectively. The past 2 years were different. It rose 30.5 percent in May 2024 and gained 6.11 percent in May 2025.

On-chain indicators were mixed. By Glassnode's exchange net position change measure, daily net inflows continued throughout April. Net inflows totaled 1,811,427 SOL on April 7, 364,578 SOL on April 26 and 552,787 SOL on April 27. There were no days all month that reflected net buying, with outflows from exchanges. Even so, Solana managed to end April higher. It was the first monthly gain of 2026, following minus 15.3 percent in January, minus 20 percent in February and minus 1.53 percent in March.

Spot Solana ETF demand is cited as a factor behind that. If ETF inflows in May fall further than in April, the buffer that has supported exchange-side selling pressure could weaken. If May inflows hold at April levels or exceed them, the declining trend that has continued since last November would stop.

Price levels are also clear. On the upside, $86.09 and $91.07 are key resistance levels. If that range is regained, it could open the way to $97.64. On the downside, support levels are cited at $83.01, $80.52 and $78.03, in that order. If $78 breaks, it would open the neckline at $69.97, and below that the $56 range is presented as a target zone.

The Alpenglow consensus upgrade would cut final confirmation time to 150 milliseconds, but the schedule to apply it to the mainnet in May has not been confirmed. For now, SOL's short-term direction is more likely to be determined by ETF fund inflows and whether it defends $78 than by technical developments, the outlet reported.